Expected Increase in US Container Imports in First Half of 2024
The inbound cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is projected to rise in the first half of this year, despite recent attacks on ships in the Red Sea, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, emphasizes that only approximately 12% of U.S.-bound cargo passes through the Suez Canal. However, he acknowledges the global impact of the Red Sea situation in terms of volatility and uncertainty.
"U.S. retailers are working to mitigate the impact of delays and increased costs. However, the longer the disruptions occur, the greater impact it could have. More needs to be done among partners and allies to ensure the safety of vessels and crews to avoid another year of supply chain disruption," says Gold.
Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, states that carriers are utilizing surplus capacity to offset the impact of longer transit times, either by redirecting voyages around the Cape of Good Hope or to the U.S. West Coast. He believes that freight rates are starting to ease as carriers adapt their services.
"The shipping industry has swiftly adjusted by adding extra vessels to its networks and has resumed normal weekly ship arrivals," Hackett said. "Service from Asia to the U.S. East Coast is performing well, and the significant increase in freight rates is displaying signs of easing, with shippers' pressure likely to quickly bring them down."
In December, U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker processed 1.87 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU), a slight drop (1%) from November but an 8.3% YoY increase. The total TEU for 2023 amounted to 22.3 million, a 12.8% decrease from 2022.
The report also includes projections for the first half of 2024, estimating a 5.3% increase from the same period the previous year, reaching 11.1 million TEU.
Descartes reported this week that U.S. container import volume increased by 7.9% in January 2024 compared to December 2023, marking the largest month-over-month growth for January in the past seven years. Imports for last month were 9.9% higher than January 2023 and 9.6% higher than pre-pandemic January 2019.