US Container Imports Reach Peak Later Than Anticipated, NRF Reports

Imports at major U.S. container ports is projected to continue its slowdown in the remaining weeks of 2023 after reaching its peak later than expected this autumn, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled a higher-than-anticipated 2.05 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEU) in October, representing a 1.3% increase from September and a 2.5% increase from October 2022. The report noted that this was the first year-over-year increase since June 2022.

While August was initially predicted to be the peak month with 1.96 million TEU, October exceeded September's volume and is now projected to be the peak of the holiday shipping season, according to the NRF. In recent years, the peak has shifted to August or earlier due to port labor disputes, prompting retailers to import goods ahead of the holidays to avoid potential disruptions. The most recent year when shipping reached its peak in October was 2020.

"Whether it was merchandise for retailers or cargo for other businesses, that's a positive indication for the economy and the holiday shopping season. NRF expects holiday sales to set new records this year, and retailers are well-prepared to meet consumer demand," said Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.

NRF forecasts a 3% to 4% increase in holiday sales for 2023 compared to the previous year, in line with pre-pandemic growth rates. The projected total holiday sales are estimated to range from $957.3 billion to $966.6 billion, setting a new record.

"The U.S. economy appears to be on a sustainable growth trajectory as consumer demand remains strong," noted Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, citing solid Black Friday weekend sales, robust corporate profits, and continued GDP growth. "Although it would be natural to assume that any concerns about a recession have been put to rest, a significant number of economists and politicians remain doubtful. As always, only time will tell."

November and December data has not yet been reported by the ports, but Global Port Tracker projects year-over-year increases of 10.5% and 11.5% for these months, respectively. If these projections hold true, 2023 will see a total of 22.4 million TEU, marking a 12.4% decrease from the volume of the previous year. In 2022, imports amounted to 25.5 million TEU, representing a 1.2% decline from the record set in 2021 with 25.8 million TEU.

Looking ahead to 2024, continued year-over-year volume growth is expected. January is projected to reach 1.93 million TEU, a 6.6% increase from the previous year. February, historically the slowest month due to Lunar New Year factory closures in Asia, is forecasted to reach 1.77 million TEU, a 14.5% increase from the previous year. March and April are projected to have volumes of 1.75 million TEU (up 7.7% YoY) and 1.8 million TEU (up 1% YoY), respectively.