U.S. supply chains are beginning to show signs of recovery after a year filled with major disruptions caused by tariffs, according to project44's December Tariff Report released today. However, ongoing legal challenges and uncertainties in trade policy still cast a shadow over predictions for 2026.

The report indicates that the maritime sector is slowly returning to normal after the “Liberation Day” tariffs imposed a flat 10% duty on nearly all imports and raised some specific rates as high as 40% on April 2. The number of blank sailings, or canceled voyages that suggest weak demand or oversupply, has decreased by 65% from its peak in April. This indicates that carriers are mostly restoring schedule predictability after a period of instability.

According to Brian Cooper, CMO of project44, "Supply chains are stabilizing after a year of tariff-driven disruption. Carriers have resumed more predictable schedules and importers are diversifying their sourcing as shipments to and from China are still significantly lower than in previous years. Countries like Indonesia and Thailand are stepping up as important sources for the U.S., but it's too early to assume these changes are permanent. With a pending Supreme Court ruling and active refund lawsuits, the policy landscape remains uncertain, which means there could be more volatility ahead even as conditions improve."

The tariff changes implemented on April 2 caused immediate disruptions in supply chains, as companies rushed to rethink their sourcing strategies, pricing, and inventory management. Blank sailings surged to 131 in April across major U.S. trade routes tracked by project44, especially between Asia and the U.S., China and the U.S., and the U.S. to China. By November, this number had decreased to 46, which project44 describes as a normal level.

Trade between the U.S. and China has stayed low throughout 2025. U.S. imports from China were down 28% through November compared to 2024, while exports to China have dropped 41% year-to-date. However, November saw the smallest year-over-year decline in exports since January, down just 23%, which might indicate some progress from recent trade discussions.

Data from Descartes Systems Group’s December Global Shipping Report also highlights a decline in trade with China. In November, U.S. container imports totaled 2,183,048 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), down 5.4% from October and 7.8% lower than November 2024. Most of this decline came from China, which saw a drop of 174,650 TEUs, or 19.7%, compared to the same month last year.

As volumes from China have decreased, suppliers from Southeast Asia are gaining market share. Project44 reports that U.S. imports from Thailand are up 33% year-to-date, while imports from Indonesia have increased by 34% compared to 2024, despite both countries facing tariffs that have risen by 19% since January, plus additional product-specific surcharges.

Descartes data for November showed even more significant year-over-year growth from the region, with Vietnam growing by 15.4%, Thailand by 27.2%, and Indonesia by 18.0%.

Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy at Descartes, noted that "November’s decline in U.S. container import volumes may also reflect caution among importers due to the ongoing tariff situation. While recent agreements between the U.S. and China have reduced short-term pressures, long-term uncertainties in trade relationships remain. Legal challenges to IEEPA tariffs, ongoing geopolitical instability, and caution from carriers in the Red Sea corridor are all contributing to a cautious outlook for U.S. importers as the year ends."

Despite signs of stabilization in shipping schedules and a shift in sourcing, significant uncertainty lingers. Soon, a Supreme Court case will decide whether the administration's broad use of tariff authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is constitutional. Several large importers have also filed lawsuits seeking refunds for duties they believe were wrongly charged. With these legal issues unresolved and diplomatic discussions ongoing, there is still a possibility of renewed market volatility in early 2026.