OSLO/LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) – A U.S. naval blockade around Iranian ports has significantly reduced Iran's oil exports, leading to an increasing amount of crude oil stuck on tankers as local storage options fill up,...
OSLO/LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) – A U.S. naval blockade around Iranian ports has significantly reduced Iran's oil exports, leading to an increasing amount of crude oil stuck on tankers as local storage options fill up, according to shipping data and analysts.
With some ships turning off their tracking systems and U.S. forces intercepting Iranian tankers, it's hard to determine exactly how much crude Iran is supplying, especially to its biggest customer, China.
Between April 13 and 25, only a few tankers transporting Iranian crude have left the Gulf of Oman, as reported by oil analytics company Vortexa. This is a drop of over 80% compared to the same time in March, when Iran exported 23.4 million barrels, according to LSEG data.
Several vessels from Iran have been stopped by the U.S. after leaving Iranian ports, including certain sanctioned container ships and Iranian tankers in Asian seas.
WORSENING MARKET TIGHTNESS
“Currently, we estimate that around 4 million barrels of Iranian crude have successfully left the Gulf of Oman. We cannot confirm if any of those ships have been stopped since,” Vortexa stated in an email to Reuters.
The reduction in Iranian supply adds to the general tightness in the oil market, as the ongoing conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, limiting oil exports from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq, which has driven prices higher—something the U.S. is trying to prevent.
Last month, the U.S. unexpectedly allowed Iran a temporary sanctions waiver on energy exports to help lower prices.
Since the war in Iran began on February 28, benchmark Brent crude oil futures have soared by about $50 a barrel, leading to increased prices for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel.
The International Energy Agency has labeled it as the largest oil output disruption in the world.
NO TANKERS HAVE LEFT GULF SINCE BLOCKADE – KPLER
Analysts at Kpler reported that they haven't seen any Iranian crude tankers leave the Gulf of Oman since the blockade began.
U.S. officials stated on Wednesday that the blockade is cutting off crucial revenue from Iran's crude exports.
“Currently, there are 41 tankers carrying 69 million barrels of oil that the Iranian regime is unable to sell,” U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) mentioned on Wednesday.
Iran's currency, the rial, hit an all-time low against the U.S. dollar on Wednesday, highlighting the financial struggles faced by the oil-dependent economy.
Despite these challenges, Iran continues to load crude at its primary export terminal on Kharg Island, reported maritime intelligence firm TankerTrackers.
Satellite images indicate that at least 10 tankers are anchored near Iran's Chah Bahar port in the Gulf of Oman.
In February, Iran produced about 3.24 million barrels per day of crude oil, with roughly half being used for domestic refining.
However, Kpler analyst Johannes Rauball suggested that the country might need to start reducing production in a week or two due to limited storage capacity.
Kpler noted that onshore storage is around 60% full, with levels above 50 million barrels and a total capacity of 86 million barrels.
Capacity issues could force Iran to cut production by mid-June, as estimated by consultancy FGE NextantECA on April 15.