Container imports to the U.S. are expected to stay lower than last year until at least early fall, even after a slight increase in May and June. This outlook comes from new estimates by the National Retail Federation (...
Container imports to the U.S. are expected to stay lower than last year until at least early fall, even after a slight increase in May and June. This outlook comes from new estimates by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, highlighting the growing strain on global trade due to economic uncertainty and tensions in the Middle East affecting consumer demand.
The Global Port Tracker report provides a cautious forecast for the second half of 2026. Retailers are slowing down inventory restocking as they adapt to issues like tariffs, inflation, and the ongoing situation in the Strait of Hormuz.
While May and June are projected to show an increase in import volumes compared to the previous year, NRF notes that this rise is misleading. It’s compared to a steep drop in imports that followed the "Liberation Day" tariff announcement by the Trump administration in April 2025.
“The data suggests a year-over-year rise for the coming months, but this is simply due to the significant decline in imports after the tariffs were announced,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF's Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “With inflation rising and consumer confidence declining amid global economic uncertainties from the conflict in Iran, we expect the trend of lower imports to continue.”
The report indicates that retailers are cautious about aggressively replenishing their warehouses, even though the traditional peak shipping season is approaching.
“Containerized imports in the first quarter were down compared to last year, and future demand is also weakening,” stated Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Delays in restocking and increasing geopolitical tensions are making the outlook more uncertain.”
In March, major U.S. ports processed 2.16 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units), which was a slight increase of 0.6% from the same month last year and a notable jump of 13.6% from February, when cargo flows were disrupted due to Lunar New Year factory closures in Asia and adverse weather.
However, this momentum might not last long.
Projected imports for April are estimated at 2.13 million TEU, a decrease of 3.6% compared to last year. May is forecasted at 2.17 million TEU, an 11.1% rise, while June is expected to hit 2.13 million TEU, an increase of 8.2%.
Afterward, import volumes are expected to decline again.
July imports are predicted to drop 7.8% compared to last year, reaching 2.2 million TEU, followed by a 5.5% decrease in August and a 1.3% decline in September.
This weaker outlook reflects growing concerns in both retail and shipping sectors that consumer demand could weaken further as inflation pressures rise and global supply chains are susceptible to geopolitical disturbances.
The ongoing instability around the Strait of Hormuz adds more uncertainty for cargo owners who are already dealing with high transportation costs, fluctuating fuel prices, and longer planning cycles for transit.
Even with the temporary rebound in May and June, total imports for the first half of 2026 are projected to reach 12.59 million TEU, which is only 0.5% higher than the same period last year.
This follows a mostly stable 2025, where imports totaled 25.4 million TEU, a slight decline from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
For ocean carriers and port operators hoping for a strong recovery in the second half, the latest projections suggest that the industry may be moving into another unpredictable peak season.