U.S. container imports are set to hit a record high in July as retailers speed up shipments ahead of possible new tariffs expected to start in August. This is according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The report predicts that U.S. ports will handle 2.47 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) in July, exceeding the previous record of 2.4 million TEU set in May 2022 during a post-pandemic surge in imports. This anticipated volume shows a 3.3% increase compared to July 2025.
This increase is attributed to importers who are looking to avoid higher costs due to expected changes in U.S. trade policy.
“This year’s early peak season is expected to continue through July as retailers prepare for possibly higher tariffs in August and other trade uncertainties,” said Jonathan Gold, NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy. He noted that retailers are also facing supply chain issues related to the conflict involving Iran while getting ready for the back-to-school season and the holiday shopping period.
Temporary global tariffs of 10% imposed in February are set to expire on July 24, while the Trump administration is likely to propose new tariffs on goods associated with forced labor as soon as August.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, mentioned that the recent rise in cargo volumes is mainly driven by these anticipated policy shifts.
“Import volumes have risen sharply, and this growth is expected to continue into July,” Hackett said. “Much of this increase is due to frontloading in anticipation of higher tariffs.”
Recent port data indicated that major U.S. container ports processed 2.24 million TEU in May, marking a 14.9% increase from the previous year and 10.1% higher than April.
Although June volumes have not been finalized, they are projected at 2.33 million TEU, representing an 18.7% year-over-year increase. This would bring total imports for the first half of 2026 to 12.77 million TEU, about 2% more than the same timeframe last year.
The report anticipates that volumes will decrease after July, with August imports estimated at 2.22 million TEU, down 4.5% from the previous year. September and October are both forecasted at 1.99 million TEU, while November is projected at 1.92 million TEU.
This trend highlights how the traditional peak shipping season is moving earlier in the year. Once concentrated around October, demand for imports has increasingly shifted to late spring and summer in recent years, in response to labor disruptions, geopolitical tensions, and changes in tariff policies.
Despite the high import volumes, there are few signs of congestion at the nation’s main shipping gateway. The Marine Exchange of Southern California reported only two container ships at anchor on July 2, with no ships expected to anchor during the July 4 holiday weekend, indicating that terminals are managing elevated cargo flows without significant delays.
In total, U.S. container imports reached 25.4 million TEU in 2025, a slight decrease from 25.5 million TEU in 2024.
The Global Port Tracker includes the largest container ports in the U.S., such as Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston.