U.S. container imports are predicted to rise again in June compared to last year, as retailers rush to ship products before possible changes in tariffs and higher shipping costs. However, volumes are likely to stay belo...
U.S. container imports are predicted to rise again in June compared to last year, as retailers rush to ship products before possible changes in tariffs and higher shipping costs. However, volumes are likely to stay below 2025 levels for most of the second half of the year, according to the latest report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
The increase in imports is influenced by several factors, including uncertainty about tariffs, high fuel costs due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, and inflation worries.
"We expect a rise this month compared to last year, as retailers are bringing in goods early to avoid the higher costs of tariffs and fuel expected in August," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy. "Nevertheless, the overall trend is toward lower imports as the situation in Iran continues to drive inflation and uncertainty in the economy."
The anticipated increases seem favorable compared to last year, when import volumes dropped sharply after President Donald Trump announced new tariffs in April 2025.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that the current rise in imports results from both favorable year-over-year comparisons and retailers trying to manage costs.
"We have raised our forecast for June cargo volume as retailers move their peak season shipments forward to counteract rising shipping costs and concerns over potential new tariffs," Hackett explained.
He also mentioned that this surge is expected to continue into July, leading to an earlier and longer peak season than usual, rather than the typical late-summer rush.
"After this, we anticipate a decline in import volume due to ongoing consumer uncertainty and the effects of rising inflation," he added.
The Global Port Tracker reported that U.S. ports monitored handled 2.05 million TEUs in April, a decrease of 5.1% from March and 7.3% from last year. This number does not include the Port of New York and New Jersey, which had not reported April statistics yet.
May volumes are expected to be around 2.14 million TEUs, a rise of 9.7% compared to last year, while June's volume is projected to reach 2.25 million TEUs, up 14.3%. However, forecasts for the second half of summer turn negative, with July estimated at 2.19 million TEUs, down 8.4% from the previous year. August is expected to see an 8.6% decline to 2.12 million TEUs, followed by a 2.2% drop in September to 2.06 million TEUs. October's volume is predicted to be nearly flat, with a slight increase of 0.1%.
Even with the anticipated slowdown later in the year, the increases in May and June should boost first-half 2026 import volumes to 12.6 million TEUs, up 0.6% from the first half of 2025.
The report highlights that retailers are dealing with a complicated trade environment marked by changing tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and rising transportation costs. Recent disruptions from the Iran conflict have driven fuel prices up and added uncertainty to global supply chains, pushing some importers to expedite shipments while overall consumer demand remains strong.
The Global Port Tracker monitors major U.S. container ports, including Los Angeles, Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, Tacoma, New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, Jacksonville, and Houston.