By Weilun Soon
April 26, 2026 (Bloomberg) - In early April, after a month of disruptions at one of the most important energy chokepoints in the world, US President Donald Trump stated that with "a little more time, we can easily OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL, & MAKE A FORTUNE."
However, three weeks later, crossing the Strait of Hormuz has become nearly impossible for the first time in history. Trump has enforced a US blockade on Iranian-linked ships, while Tehran is deploying its "mosquito fleet" of small gunboats to close off the waterway in response. Shipowners report that normal shipping operations may not resume for months.
Daily transits, which had already been limited since the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, have now dropped to almost zero, compared to a peacetime average of around 135.
For weeks, vessel owners and crews faced significant challenges in attempting to exit the strait, as the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps tightened its control. Now, US warships are intercepting vessels, some far from the Persian Gulf, alongside increasingly unpredictable Iranian gunboats reacting to the situation.
Several shipping officials in the region have noted that the US blockade has made the area more unstable, as Iran increases efforts to keep the strait closed.
Rajalingam Subramaniam, CEO of Fleet Management Limited, which has over 400 seafarers trapped in the gulf, stated, "What the US is doing with its blockade seems to be expanding the risk area for ships. There’s a lot of posturing going on, which has created more uncertainty."
The Hormuz Strait is a narrow maritime passage that connects oil and gas producers in the Gulf with the rest of the world. It has become the central flashpoint in the eight-week war with Iran, highlighting the country’s unique capability to cause global economic disruption and symbolizing the ongoing nature of the conflict as both sides remain entrenched.
Rachel Ziemba, a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, remarked, "Hormuz is definitely a leverage tool and a measure of whether Iranian responses are coordinated. The US blockade was partly meant to counter Iran’s leverage, but Iran still has some leeway and recent revenues to give it time."
Iran's resilience comes from years of self-sufficiency and a regime designed to withstand challenges, as well as income from recent oil sales. The global economy, on the other hand, is facing time constraints.
Every day that passes adds to the financial burden of the conflict, affecting not just Asia, which depends on imports, but the entire world, including the US, as energy shortages and price increases ripple through markets and supply chains.
Crude oil production from Gulf nations, which are among the world's key suppliers, is now 57% below pre-war levels, according to analysts from Goldman Sachs, including Daan Struyven. A recovery could take months, even after a complete reopening of the strait. "The recovery may only be partial after a prolonged closure," they noted in a recent report.
Demand destruction is already occurring in gas markets, while fertilizer shortages are expected to affect food production and prices throughout this year and beyond.
A prolonged conflict complicates the situation even more, creating a difficult scenario stemming from Trump's earlier decisions, with new negotiations yet to be established.
Transits through Hormuz declined sharply shortly after the US and Israel began their strikes on Iran at the end of February.
Workarounds have started to emerge, including bilateral agreements to ensure safe passage for some ships and a unique Iranian payment system. Meanwhile, Iranian vessels have managed to navigate through, contributing some oil to the market.
A tentative ceasefire in early April gave hope to Western vessel owners, with A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, the world's second-largest container shipping company, exploring "transit opportunities." On April 11, three supertankers exited the region, marking the highest number of non-Iranian oil tankers leaving since the war began.
However, Trump, frustrated with slow progress, announced a blockade on Iran.
Initially, it seemed effective. Iran contemplated pausing shipments to avoid confrontation with US warships, and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later declared that the country would open the strait. Nevertheless, Trump made no move to lift the blockade, angering essential factions in Tehran.
This led to chaotic events last week, with ships being attacked and seized — including a sanctioned oil tanker boarded in waters east of Sri Lanka, expanding the range of operations. On Saturday, the US Navy intercepted a carrier in the Arabian Sea just one day after Washington sanctioned it.
For those managing the hundreds of ships still stuck in the gulf, the ongoing conflict raises serious concerns about the estimated 20,000 seafarers on board these vessels.
Currently, many are being supported through daily check-ins, counseling sessions, and ensuring they have enough food and water, according to shipowners and managers. Some crews have already been replaced as contracts expire, but finding new teams is proving to be difficult and costly.
Some companies and the International Maritime Organization have developed evacuation plans; however, without an end to the hostilities, these plans remain theoretical.
“Today we have no reassurance whatsoever from governments,” stated Alexander Saverys, CEO of shipowner CMB.TECH. “We will only get that reassurance when we see that ships can safely and sustainably pass through the strait.”