By Alexander Weber and Mark Schroers

Feb 18, 2026 (Bloomberg) – A recent study from the European Central Bank finds that Donald Trump’s trade tariffs are not the primary reason for China's increased exports to other parts of the world.

According to researchers Julien Le Roux and Tajda Spital, “Any changes related to tariffs seem to be small and limited to certain products, showing that US tariffs have only a slight effect on trade with other countries.”

The study suggests that instead of tariffs, “weak domestic demand in China has pushed companies to export more, supported by lower export prices, gains in competitiveness due to a weaker currency, and an increase in manufacturing capacity led by the government.”

The US tariffs have raised concerns at the ECB that China might redirect goods to the euro area, increasing competition for European companies. Some more cautious policymakers see this as a risk for inflation, which is already expected to be below 2%.

This month, France’s Francois Villeroy de Galhau noted that the rise in imports from China and the lower prices of those products in the latter half of 2025 could create a “strong disinflationary effect.” Meanwhile, Isabel Schnabel, a member of the ECB Executive Board, mentioned that the impact of China's exports shifting has been “less significant than anticipated.”

According to the ECB, Chinese exports grew by 5.5% last year, up from 4.6% in 2024. Although shipments to the US fell by 20% due to tariffs, exports to the euro zone increased by 8%. Other regions like Asia, Africa, and Latin America also saw boosts in shipments.

However, the ECB study advised that it might still be too early to fully understand the impact of tariffs due to factors like “anticipatory behavior, delays in customs implementation, shipping holdups, and other variables.”