Containerized imports to the U.S. are expected to drop significantly in the first half of 2026 due to ongoing uncertainty about tariffs, as reported in the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.
Jonathan Gold, the NRF’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, stated, “The debate over tariffs in courts and Congress is clearly impacting imports. This situation highlights the need for clear trade policies that provide certainty for supply chains, business planning, and consumer prices. Tariffs act as a tax on U.S. businesses, which consumers ultimately pay through increased prices.”
The report forecasts that U.S. ports will manage 12.27 million TEU in the first half of 2026, a 2% drop from 12.53 million TEU during the same period last year. March is expected to see the largest decrease, with a 12% drop, followed by April with a 7.1% decline. However, May and June are predicted to show modest increases of 9.3% and 8%, respectively.
Uncertainty remains high, as the Supreme Court could rule at any moment on the legality of the current administration’s tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Even if these tariffs are struck down, experts caution that the administration might introduce new duties under different trade laws, prolonging the uncertain situation.
Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, noted that tariff policies are causing a “global change in trade relations” affecting import volumes. “Using tariffs against all countries, friends and foes, combined with uncertainty about their timing, makes predicting trade much harder,” he explained.
In December 2025, U.S. ports handled 1.99 million TEU, reflecting a 1.7% decline from November and a 6.6% decrease year-over-year, although data from Houston and Charleston is still pending. For the entire year of 2025, imports reached 25.4 million TEU, a 0.4% drop from 2024.
The expected increases in late spring are primarily due to comparisons with weak prior months, as imports fell sharply in May and June 2025 after the announcement of “Liberation Day” tariffs in April.
The 2025 totals surpassed earlier predictions, as the NRF had originally estimated imports might drop by as much as 5.6% from 2024 levels due to the impact of Liberation Day tariffs.
Hackett has previously described the administration's tariff strategy as unpredictable, leading to confusion in the supply chain. “All parties, allies and adversaries alike, are affected by trade flow disruptions as importers attempt to anticipate tariff levels by preemptively increasing imports before duties are enforced,” he said.
While the severe Liberation Day tariffs were avoided due to trade agreements, the volatility in tariff policy has continued to influence import volumes. In 2025, there was also confusion caused by a brief USTR ship fee plan targeting vessels built or operated in China, which was introduced in mid-October and quickly repealed as part of a broader U.S.–China trade deal.
Global Port Tracker monitors major U.S. container ports, including Los Angeles/Long Beach, Oakland, Seattle, and Tacoma on the West Coast; New York/New Jersey, Virginia, Charleston, Savannah, Port Everglades, Miami, and Jacksonville on the East Coast; and Houston on the Gulf Coast.