It has been over three months since the last Houthi attack on commercial ships in the Red Sea. However, traffic through the Suez Canal is still significantly below normal levels. According to BIMCO, ship traffic is about 60% lower than what it was before the crisis as the shipping industry continues to deal with ongoing security concerns and economic instability.
The last ship attacked by Houthi militants was the Minervagracht on September 29, 2025. After 43 days, the Iran-backed group claimed they would stop their maritime operations. Yet, as we enter the first week of 2026, we have not seen the expected increase in ships returning to this vital route.
Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, stated, “One hundred days ago, the Minervagracht was the last ship attacked by the Houthis, at least for now. Forty-three days later, the Houthis said they would stop attacking ships. However, traffic through the Suez Canal has not significantly improved, and it remains 60% below what it was during the same week last year, before vessels started rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.”
Data from Lloyd's List shows the Houthis attacked or seized ships 99 times between November 2023 and the last incident in September 2025. While the first attacks in late 2023 had little immediate impact on canal traffic, there's been a significant drop in the amount of cargo passing through the Suez Canal since January 2024, with recovery rates now between 51-64% lower compared to 2023.
The effects of these events haven't affected all shipping sectors equally. BIMCO highlights that the container shipping segment has suffered the most, with fourth-quarter transits in 2025 down 86% from 2023. Almost all container ships have avoided using the canal since the crisis began, although some major shipping companies are starting to cautiously return.
CMA CGM has taken the lead in this limited return, announcing last month that its MEDEX and INDAMEX services would resume Suez transits starting this month.
On December 19, the Maersk Sebarok made history as the first Maersk ship to transit the canal since early 2024. However, the company stated that it has not committed to continuous passage, only mentioning that “as long as security conditions are met, we are considering a gradual return to navigation along the East-West corridor via the Suez Canal and the Red Sea.”
Shortly after the Maersk Sebarok transit, the CMA CGM Jacques Saade went through the canal on its way from Morocco to Malaysia. At 400 meters long and capable of carrying 23,000 containers, this LNG-powered vessel became the largest containership to use the Suez route since the start of the Red Sea crisis. Another vessel, the CMA CGM Adonis, with a capacity of over 15,500 TEUs, also made a trip northbound.
Product tankers have returned the quickest, attracted by rising freight rates. In the fourth quarter of 2025, transits for this segment were only 19% lower than in 2023, a sharp recovery from the 45% drop experienced during 2024, according to BIMCO.
Financial pressures to return to the Suez are increasing. War-risk insurance premiums for the Red Sea have dropped to roughly 0.2% of the hull value in early December, the lowest since November 2023 and below the 0.5% charged before the Israel-Hamas ceasefire. Nevertheless, the insurance costs remain high enough to discourage many major shipping lines from fully resuming their canal transits.
The Houthi suspension, announced on November 11, 2025, was conditional. Yousef Hassan Al Madani, the newly appointed Chief of Staff, warned that attacks could restart if Israel resumes its military operations in Gaza, stating, “We are closely monitoring developments and declare that if the enemy resumes its aggression against Gaza, we will return to our military operations deep within the Zionist entity and we will reinstate the ban on Israeli navigation in the Red and Arabian Seas.”
Security experts have warned against complacency. Martin Kelly, Head of Advisory at EOS Risk Group, noted that just because the risk has decreased doesn't mean it has vanished. “As of November 11, the risk of Houthi attacks against shipping in the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden, and the wider region is significantly lower,” Kelly stated. “However, despite the declared pause, the Houthis still have the ability to carry out missile, drone, and unmanned surface vehicle attacks against commercial shipping.”
A complete return to normal traffic in the Suez Canal could have significant economic implications. Rasmussen mentioned, “A normal flow of ship transits now seems more likely than at any point in the last two years, but it is still unclear when or how fast this might happen. Returning to the Suez Canal would greatly reduce shipping company costs but could also lower ship demand. A full normalization is estimated to cut container ship demand by about 10%, while other sectors might see reductions of 2-3%.”
At this point, the canal remains in a state of uncertainty — officially open, but not being used effectively — as shipowners weigh the increasing financial incentive to return against security concerns that remain after two years of conflict.