Global shipping rates for containers fell for the sixth week in a row, dropping by 1% to $1,919 for a 40-foot container. This decline comes as the usual rush of cargo before the Lunar New Year has not met expectations for shippers and carriers.
The latest update from the Drewry World Container Index highlights some unusual trends in the market. Typically, shipping rates increase at this time of year due to exporters quickly sending goods before factories close for the holiday. However, rates have been decreasing steadily since early January.
Transpacific routes are particularly affected. Spot rates from Shanghai to New York dipped 1% to $2,782 per FEU, while rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles remained unchanged at $2,219. In response, carriers have announced 31 canceled sailings for the upcoming week on both East and West Coast routes, which is significantly more than what is usual for this time of year.
Drewry noted, “Container spot rates are decreasing considerably, indicating weakness in the market, which contrasts with the usual expectation of increased demand and rising rates leading up to the Lunar New Year.” They cautioned that if the usual seasonal patterns continue, prices might drop even more in the coming weeks.
Rates on Asia–Europe routes are also showing weakness. The cost from Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 1% to $2,109 per FEU, while the rate to Genoa went down 2% to $2,895. Carriers have announced eight canceled sailings on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes for next week due to factory shutdowns and fluctuating market conditions.
This general decline points to a shift in market fundamentals. Just a week ago, rates had already decreased by 7% to $1,933 per FEU, marking a fifth consecutive weekly drop. By that time, carriers had canceled a total of 57 transpacific sailings over the previous two weeks, with another 24 cancellations announced for Asia–Europe routes.
Drewry observed, “This drop reflects a major change in the market, as the expected pre-Lunar New Year demand is not happening in 2026.”
The management of shipping capacity is taking place against a complex backdrop. Diversions around the Cape of Good Hope are currently taking up about 2 million TEU, or 8% of the global container fleet, but some services are gradually returning to the Suez Canal, which may affect supply and rate predictions.
Drewry analyst Philip Damas noted that the timing and extent of this return to the Suez Canal is crucial for the market this year. He explained that carriers are considering risks such as security, insurance costs, competition, and port congestion before making full commitments.
This cautious approach started when Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that their ME11 service would resume transits through the Red Sea by mid-February, following successful trial voyages and a decrease in attacks after the ceasefire in Gaza in October 2025. However, caution remains, as CMA CGM recently decided to reroute three Asia–Europe services back around the Cape, citing a “complex and uncertain international context.”
Drewry commented, “These mixed decisions suggest that capacity will gradually return to the market rather than all at once,” adding that a slow return could help prevent a drastic drop in spot rates.
Looking forward, analysts warn that global freight rates might fall by as much as 25% in 2026 due to new ships being delivered and weaker demand, even if conditions in the Red Sea remain stable. The Suez Canal Authority anticipates a return to normal traffic levels in the second half of 2026.
With carriers now planning 63 canceled sailings for February—an increase from 27 in January—the market seems prepared for further pressure on rates as factories close and cargo demand declines.