The recent six-week surge in global container freight rates has ended, according to the latest data from the Drewry World Container Index (WCI), which shows a 3% drop to $2,246 for a 40-foot container.
This decrease follows a significant rise caused by increasing bunker fuel costs due to disruptions related to the conflict in the Middle East at the end of February. After a decline in January and early February, rates skyrocketed as oil markets reacted to supply shocks from instability around the Strait of Hormuz. Now, that trend has reversed.
In major east-west trading routes, spot rates have declined as well. The rate from Shanghai to New York dropped 3% to $3,552 per FEU, while the rate from Shanghai to Los Angeles also fell by 3% to $2,810.
Drewry noted that shipping companies are starting to manage capacity on the Transpacific route, planning nine blank sailings for next week. Additionally, some carriers have introduced Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) of about $2,000 per container, effective May 1, indicating a strategy to stabilize rates before the busy summer shipping season.
On Asia–Europe routes, the trend is similarly weak. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam decreased by 3% to $2,229 per FEU, while Shanghai to Genoa saw a 2% drop to $3,343. Unlike the Transpacific, there has been less management of capacity, with only one blank sailing reported thus far, suggesting looser supply conditions in this trade.
Additional cost pressures could still be building. Israeli carrier ZIM Integrated Shipping Services has introduced a new bunker factor of $850 per container starting May 1, reflecting high fuel costs that may influence freight prices.
For now, Drewry anticipates that rates will remain relatively stable in the short term with less volatility expected until the new surcharges come into effect.
However, the wider geopolitical situation continues to pose challenges for the market.
The U.S.-led naval blockade aimed at Iranian-linked shipping has disrupted vessel movements throughout the Gulf, causing several ships to be turned back. This strain on global oil supply has driven up energy prices, increasing operating costs for carriers and raising the risk of further disruptions in the supply chain.
Drewry cautioned that if negotiations do not alleviate tensions, shippers may experience reduced schedule reliability, possible port omissions, longer transit times, and renewed pressure on freight rates.