Recent energy data indicates that the surplus of crude oil is expected to decrease in the next two to three months unless there are improvements in geopolitical situations.
During a webinar, Vortexa highlighted that inflows into the Atlantic Basin are already slowing down, and with China pulling in inventories at rates of about 1 million barrels per day, there is a high risk of significant tightening in the oil market. They estimate that China's additional crude buffer built since 2025 could be mostly depleted in about four months if current consumption rates continue.
David Welch, chief economist at Vortexa, remarked, “While everything appears to be well-supplied now, there’s no guarantee this will last. I see an increasing risk of a significant market tightening. This won’t happen overnight, but in two or three months, it is very possible unless we see a major shift in geopolitical events.”
The oil trade landscape is changing for 2026, and experts at Vortexa say these changes are coming with additional costs.
Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence at Vortexa, explained that the strait is not simply open or closed but is operating selectively. Ships passing through are doing so with limited visibility, leading to reduced visibility in Hormuz, increased reliance on ship-to-ship transfers and alternative pipelines, and longer routes. This means more crude is accumulating near the end buyer, which adds costs, delays, and operational risks.
Vortexa analysts reported that ship-to-ship transfers made up 57% of Gulf crude exports in July, a significant increase from just 12% a year ago. STS is evolving from a mere concealment tactic to a crucial logistical method.
“Although the overall volumes for STS have risen notably, the number of shuttle vessels may seem small, yet their effect is substantial. A single Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) can transport about 2 million barrels, so even a few such transfers can greatly support regional exports. Recent data indicates that a major UAE producer has added five VLCCs and chartered about 25 crude carriers for various delivery methods,” noted Jungman.
This activity is prominently visible in Vortexa's current tracking. Just yesterday, five dark crude ship-to-ship transfers were noted in the Pujara transfer zone.
Jungman emphasized the importance of UAE-origin volumes. “Traditionally, STS activity in this region has been linked to sanctioned Iranian trades or attempts to obscure cargo origins. Its growing use for mainstream UAE barrels, along with those from Kuwait and Iraq, highlights its emergence as a broader logistical tool.”
Vortexa analysts pointed out that transferring cargo to another vessel for a longer journey may lessen the final carrier's risk but introduces costs, delays, additional parties, and documentation challenges.
“We shouldn’t interpret ongoing exports as a return to normal. While crude is moving, traditional shipping practices are not in play,” Jungman stated.
As Gulf exporters adapt with dark transits and ship-to-ship transfers, Jungman mentioned that Saudi and other Red Sea origin barrels have another possible route—moving north instead of south.
The movements of Red Sea crude are responding to the Houthi announcement on July 20th about targeting Saudi shipping at Bab al-Mandab.