New Tracking Data Indicates a Shift in Shipping Through the Strait of Hormuz
A new trend is emerging in the Strait of Hormuz, where vessels are starting to navigate through Iranian waters to exit the Persian Gulf. This shift suggests that shipping in the area is moving toward a more controlled, permission-based system.
According to maritime analytics company Windward, at least five bulk carriers were spotted sailing east along Iran’s coastline on March 15-16, deviating from the narrow international navigation channel typically used in the strait.
The paths of these vessels reveal that they are hugging the Iranian coast instead of following the internationally recognized traffic separation scheme, effectively rerouting through Iranian waters to enter the Gulf of Oman.
Windward analyst Michelle Wiese Bockmann noted that this trend became apparent only after extending the tracking parameters beyond the standard transit routes.
“That’s how I saw what I believe is a new trend… ships rerouting via Iran’s territorial waters to exit the Strait,” she said, explaining that this is one of the first signs of a workaround that enables permission-based transits to friendly countries.
In most cases, these bulk carriers had previously docked at Iran’s Imam Khomeini port, a major commercial hub. Windward also tracked two liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) carriers that completed similar transits recently, though some parts of their routes were obscured by GPS interference.
This data comes as traffic through the strait—normally one of the world's busiest energy chokepoints—has significantly dropped due to a rise in attacks on commercial shipping.
Recent data from MarineTraffic highlights the extent of the disruption. In the last three days, only 15 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz, including 8 bulk carriers, 5 tankers, and 2 LPG carriers—this is a small fraction of normal traffic.
The imbalance is even more noticeable when examining the direction of travel: about 87% of the vessels were heading out, while just 13% were coming in.
This suggests that the strait is becoming less of a two-way shipping route and more of a one-way exit path, with vessels already inside the Gulf gradually leaving and very few willing to enter.
MarineTraffic also observed that many of these vessels took unusual routes through Iranian waters, supporting Windward’s findings.
The new routing pattern builds upon earlier reports by gCaptain, which pointed out a similar but distinct trend: vessels diverting toward Iran and passing between Larak and Qeshm islands before leaving the Gulf.
Analysis from EOS Risk Group suggested this corridor may serve as an informal verification checkpoint, where vessels are monitored before being allowed to transit.
At the same time, U.S. authorities have warned that Iranian forces might attempt to communicate with vessels via radio or email to request voyage details or instruct course adjustments—these communications could be used to verify identity, cargo, or destination.
There is currently no confirmed evidence that Iran has physically blocked the strait, such as through naval mining. However, the combination of credible threats, targeted attacks, and selective routing seems to be creating a similar effect.
The traditional international shipping lane is now largely avoided, while a select few vessels are using alternative routes within Iranian waters—many of which have previous commercial links to Iran.
This situation results in a maritime chokepoint that is technically open, yet operationally restricted, where access increasingly depends on political alignment and coordination.
Western shipowners, hampered by insurance and security concerns, have largely avoided the region. However, vessels linked to China, India, and other countries maintaining trade relations with Iran may be more inclined to navigate under these conditions.
If this pattern persists, the Strait of Hormuz may be transforming from a globally accessible shipping route into a selectively managed maritime gateway, where passage relies on obtaining permission.