By Timour Azhari and Mubasher Bukhari
RIYADH, Oct 2 (Reuters) – Saudi Arabia is preparing a military operation against Houthi militants in Yemen, who are supported by Iran. Options being discussed include launching an attack along the coast to secure the crucial shipping route in the Red Sea or conducting offensives from multiple angles, according to regional and Western officials.
The operation is expected to take place in the next few weeks, led by Yemeni forces under Saudi oversight, and backed by Saudi airstrikes, as stated by six sources familiar with the plans.
While the US is already providing intelligence to assist Saudi actions in Yemen, and some regional and European countries are offering mainly defensive military support, these allies are not anticipated to engage directly in combat, as per the same anonymous sources.
Saudi Arabia intervened in Yemen's civil war in 2015 at the head of an Arab coalition to support the internationally recognized government, which had been ousted by the Houthis from the capital, Sanaa. A truce between the conflicting parties, established in 2022, largely held until this year, when the Houthis began launching missile and drone attacks targeting Saudi shipping and oil infrastructure, influenced by the ongoing tensions with Iran.
A primary goal of the upcoming Saudi offensive, which has not been previously reported, is to counteract the Houthi gains made last month when they advanced along the coast and gained control of the Bab el-Mandeb strait, as informed by officials from the Gulf region and Yemen, along with Western diplomats.
Saudi officials are weighing two main strategies for the attack: either a focused strike on the Bab el-Mandeb area or a broader offensive that includes simultaneous assaults on various fronts across Yemen, specifically in the regions of Al-Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al-Jawf.
Depending on the scale of the operation, it is estimated that over 100,000 Yemeni troops could be activated for the assault, as reported by the officials.
Requests for comments from Saudi and Yemeni government representatives, the Houthi group, and the US military regarding the Saudi plans went unanswered.
Bab el-Mandeb is a vital exit point of the Red Sea, serving as a key shipping route between the Mediterranean and Asia, which has gained even more significance this year as an alternative to the Strait of Hormuz, affected by the conflict with Iran.
Saudi Arabia has determined that it cannot engage in new peace talks with the Houthis while they control the Bab el-Mandeb strait, which gives them considerable leverage on the international stage, according to Western diplomats and Gulf officials.
The exact timing for the offensive launch remains unclear, with estimates varying from within a week to post the US midterm elections in early November, based on information from the six sources.
Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, expressed his expectation that the offensive would be more focused and less expansive than the Saudi operation initiated in 2015 aimed at uprooting the militants.
“While they aim to defeat the Houthis completely, they also need to restore the previous situation before the Houthis controlled the territory around Bab el-Mandeb,” he noted. “Ideally, it would be a limited operation focused on reclaiming coastal areas and restoring normal maritime activity.”
The Houthis have emerged as Iran's strongest partner in the Middle East following the decline of Hezbollah in Lebanon over the past three years.
A Saudi-led offensive against the Houthis would signify a new escalation in a region already shaken by conflict since the Hamas-led attacks on Israel on October 7, 2023, and the resulting US-Israeli military actions against Iran.