A recent report from Navigistics Consulting indicates that the emergency Jones Act waiver implemented by the Trump administration has not achieved its intended goals. The analysis found no proof of military necessity or significant relief in gasoline prices, and it shifted domestic shipping to foreign-flagged vessels, including those with ties to China.
The report, titled "Jones Act 2026 Waiver After Action Report," was commissioned by the American Maritime Partnership (AMP). It reviewed the first 60 days of the blanket Jones Act waiver, using U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD) data concerning 659 cargo movements over 78 completed voyages.
The findings show that none of the documented voyages met the required standard for a waiver, which is that there must be an "immediate adverse effect on military operations." Instead, all shipments were for commercial fuels, blendstocks, or crude oil, not military-grade fuels like JP-5, JP-8, or F-76.
Navigistics also pointed out that U.S.-flag vessels could have handled about 87% of the qualifying waiver voyages, suggesting that the administration overlooked domestic operators despite sufficient availability.
Furthermore, the report claims that the waiver has opened U.S. shipping to foreign competitors. It notes that 23.1% of the vessels under the waiver were built in China, and 18.5% were controlled by Chinese interests, representing the largest ownership group identified in the study.
Another important finding challenges one of the main reasons given for the waiver: lowering fuel prices. The report found no reliable evidence that the waiver led to reduced retail gasoline prices during the 11-week analysis period. It also highlighted that shipping rates under the Jones Act were often comparable to, or even lower than, rates for foreign-flag ships on several domestic routes. It's worth noting that only about 6.5% of U.S. gasoline is transported by vessels subject to the Jones Act.
The analysis argues that the waiver was not necessary due to domestic fuel shortages, citing approximately 731 million barrels of U.S. petroleum exports during the waiver period. The report indicates that exports of crude oil, diesel, and jet fuel increased compared to previous years, suggesting that refiners were reacting to market demands rather than a supply crisis.
Additionally, the report asserts that California's fuel supply issues are mainly due to refinery closures, not Jones Act shipping limits. It mentions that four refinery closures have reduced the state's refining capacity by about a quarter, which has led to more imports into the West Coast fuel market.
Jennifer Carpenter, president of the American Maritime Partnership, stated, "This analysis confirms what American mariners have been saying for months: this waiver is not benefiting consumers, it is not justified by military needs, and it is giving American cargo to foreign fleets at the cost of U.S. shipyards, U.S. carriers, and the American workforce essential for our national security."
Carpenter added, "Every day this waiver continues, we are sacrificing decades of investment in our domestic maritime industry for a policy that the data shows isn't meeting its goals. It's time to end the waiver and refocus on the America First policy that prioritizes U.S. mariners and vessels."
The report also warns that the extended waiver is impacting the domestic shipping market beyond just the voyages it covers. According to Navigistics, charterers are using the waiver's availability as leverage in negotiations with Jones Act operators, and the firm argues that MARAD is not consistently checking vessel availability before approving waiver requests.
The Trump administration first used emergency waiver authority under Section 501 of the Merchant Marine Act in March, citing national defense concerns related to disruptions triggered by the Strait of Hormuz crisis. The waiver has since been extended until August 17.
As this deadline nears, AMP and other supporters of the Jones Act are urging the administration to let the waiver expire, stating that the emergency conditions that led to its implementation no longer justify continued exemptions for foreign-flagged vessels.
The Navigistics report looked at MARAD's dataset from June 1, which covered 78 completed voyages. Since then, the number of domestic shipments conducted under the emergency waiver has significantly increased. MARAD data reviewed by gCaptain shows that 137 completed domestic voyages have been carried out under the emergency waiver since it began in March, demonstrating ongoing use of waivers even as the conditions that prompted them have changed.