A recent analysis reveals that the emergency Jones Act waiver from the Trump administration has benefited U.S. refiners significantly, yet has done little to reduce fuel prices for consumers. This commentary comes from Sam Norton, CEO of the Overseas Shipholding Group, one of the largest U.S.-flag tanker operators.
Norton suggests that the waiver has allowed refiners and fuel distributors to take advantage of high profit margins, while foreign-flag tankers are increasingly conducting domestic trips typically reserved for U.S.-flag vessels under the Jones Act.
“It is hard to dispute who has benefited most from the ongoing conflict with Iran: the refiners and distributors that produce and move fossil fuels across the United States,” Norton wrote on LinkedIn.
This analysis comes as pressure mounts on the administration from maritime labor unions, U.S.-flag operators, and lawmakers to let the emergency waiver expire on August 16.
In March, the administration invoked Section 501 of the Merchant Marine Act, citing national defense concerns due to disruptions in global energy markets linked to the conflict with Iran and threats to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The waiver allows approved foreign-flag vessels to transport petroleum products and other energy cargos between U.S. ports, which is typically restricted under the Jones Act.
While the waiver aimed to alleviate fuel supply issues, Norton claims it has led to a significant rise in refining profits instead.
He cites the benchmark 3:2:1 crack spread—a commonly used measure of refinery profitability—which has surged from about 27% at the start of 2026 to around 45% in early June, and has reached as high as 70% to 75% in recent days. By various estimates, ExxonMobil and Chevron are expected to report second-quarter earnings about three times higher than in the first quarter.
At the same time, U.S.-flag vessels have been left idle as foreign-flag ships continue to get approval for domestic energy shipments.
“U.S.-flagged vessels have sat idle while lower-cost foreign-flag vessels perform domestic voyages under a continuing Jones Act waiver,” Norton stated. “U.S. maritime jobs have suffered, and the overall health of the U.S. maritime industry has been weakened on multiple fronts.”