This weekend, a quiet period in shipping attacks in the Red Sea came to an end as the Houthi movement from Yemen indicated it plans to target commercial ships again. This news disrupts a fragile recovery in one of the world’s busiest trade routes.
Two high-ranking officials from the Houthis informed international media that the group has resolved to resume missile and drone strikes against ships. They say this decision is a response to recent US and Israeli military actions against Iran. The officials warned that these attacks could start immediately, focusing on shipping paths similar to those targeted during their 2024-2025 operations in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.
This announcement marks a sharp shift in strategy. The Houthis had effectively halted their large-scale maritime assaults in mid-November 2025, coinciding with a regional easing of tensions related to a ceasefire in Gaza. From around November 11, 2025, until late February 2026, there were no confirmed missile or drone attacks on merchant ships attributed to the group. Thus, the recent statements signal the end of a period of relative calm lasting about three and a half months.
The Baltic and International Maritime Council (BIMCO), the largest maritime association globally, cautioned that vessels tied to US or Israeli interests would face a higher risk if Houthi attacks resume. However, BIMCO’s Chief Safety & Security Officer, Jakob Larsen, stressed that other ships could also be at risk, including those with no direct links to the two countries.
“Ships that have business ties to US or Israeli interests are more likely to be attacked, but other vessels might be targeted by mistake or on purpose,” Larsen stated. In previous instances, ships without clear connections to Israel or the US have been hit, sometimes due to misidentification.
This warning comes as major shipping lines have already started to backtrack on their cautious plans to return to the Red Sea. Just last week, after a brief period of limited transits through the Red Sea and just days before the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran, Danish company Maersk announced it would reroute some of its services around the Cape of Good Hope. The company cited “unforeseen constraints from the wider operational landscape in the Red Sea region,” leading to concerns about potential delays.
Shipping schedules show that the westbound Maersk Houston and Astrid Maersk will now travel via the Cape of Good Hope when departing Salalah on March 5 and March 12, respectively. This decision represents a notable setback for what had seemed to be a cautious but promising return to the region.
Maersk and its partner Hapag-Lloyd had recently announced the return of their Gemini Cooperation’s ME11 service to the Red Sea, with westbound sailings resuming on February 4 and eastbound routes starting on February 3. The advantages were significant—westbound ME11 voyages save 19 days compared to going through the Suez Canal, while eastbound journeys are seven days shorter.
However, the ongoing changes pose a risk to something even more vital than time: reliability. As Xeneta's senior analyst Destine Ozuygur pointed out when CMA CGM diverted services back around the Cape at the end of January, “Unpredictability is toxic for supply chains.”
Maersk reported a $153 million loss in its Ocean division for Q4 2025, marking its first quarterly loss in years as it navigates the tricky transition between Cape diversions and Suez routes. The company provided broad guidance for 2026, with projections ranging from a $1.5 billion loss to a $1 billion profit, reflecting significant uncertainty about when the Red Sea might see a stable reopening.
Insurance costs are expected to rise quickly if attacks resume. BIMCO noted that war risk premiums would likely increase sharply, as they did during past Houthi attacks, sometimes adding hundreds of thousands of dollars to specific journeys.
“We expect insurance rates to increase dramatically, and ships connected to US or Israeli businesses trying to enter the area might find it hard to get insurance,” Larsen said.
The Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait are crucial routes for global trade, connecting European and Mediterranean markets with Asia through the Suez Canal. Under normal circumstances, about 10-15% of global sea trade passes through this area. During past Houthi operations, significant shipping lines and tankers had to reroute around southern Africa, extending voyages by about 10-14 days, which greatly increased fuel costs and emissions.
The crisis in the Red Sea began on November 19, 2023, when Houthi forces captured the Galaxy Leader off the coast of Yemen. Since then, over 100 merchant ships have been targeted, leading to the sinking of four vessels, one seizure, and at least eight seafarers losing their lives. Before these attacks started, the Suez Canal was processing around 80 container ships each week; by mid-January 2026, that number had plummeted to just 26.
As of Monday, no new maritime attacks had been independently verified following the recent statements from the Houthis. However, naval and commercial operators in the area have raised their alert levels and enacted contingency plans.
The immediate future will depend on whether the Houthis follow through on their threats. If attacks resume, shipowners will need to make tough decisions regarding routes, charter agreements, war risk coverage, and crew safety. The freight markets are also likely to respond quickly if confirmed strikes take place.
For now, the situation remains dynamic, based on verified developments: confirmed US-Israeli military actions against Iran, credible signals from the Houthis about renewed maritime attacks, official security advisories from UKMTO, and industry alerts from BIMCO regarding targeting patterns and rising insurance costs. Together, these factors return the Red Sea and Gulf region to a high-risk maritime zone, with implications extending well beyond local waters.