The Supreme Court’s recent ruling that overturned extensive tariffs established under emergency powers may give U.S. ports a short-term boost in volume. However, according to a new report by Moody’s Ratings, this improvement could quickly diminish due to ongoing uncertainties in trade policy.
On February 20, the court canceled tariffs that were enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This ruling could lead to refunds for over $90 billion in duties already collected. Moody’s mentioned that the removal of these tariffs should reduce costs for many consumer and intermediate goods, which would, in turn, encourage higher import volumes and restocking—an overall positive for major ports.
However, this relief might be short-lived.
Just hours after the Supreme Court's decision, President Trump announced a new 10% global tariff that would last for 150 days under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. This tariff started being collected on Tuesday. Confusion followed as the rate remained at 10%, despite earlier remarks suggesting it could increase to 15%.
“We anticipate the Trump administration will explore ways to maintain tariffs and pursue its trade objectives, which could again raise costs for goods,” stated Moody’s.
The firm warned that any significant increase in imports would depend on how swiftly and broadly new tariffs are implemented, as well as whether refunds for duties already paid become available.
Andrei Quinn-Barabanov, who leads Moody’s Supply Chain Industry Practice, noted that this changing environment is affecting business relationships. “The immediate impacts of the Supreme Court’s decision and the new global tariff have created fresh pressures on customer-supplier dynamics,” he explained. “The ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariff rates, their duration, and exemptions complicates long-term planning.”
To maintain stability, companies may need to establish temporary cost-sharing agreements and shorter contracts, he warned, telling supply chain leaders to prepare for increased costs of components and materials this year.
Notably, the ruling applies only to tariffs based on the IEEPA. Other tariffs, such as Section 232 measures on steel and aluminum and Section 301 tariffs on Chinese products, remain unchanged, which may limit potential benefits for certain imports.
For key U.S. ports including Los Angeles, Long Beach, New York/New Jersey, and Savannah, reduced tariff exposure might encourage increased imports early in the year. However, Moody’s expects ongoing fluctuations in volume through 2026 as legal and policy ambiguities continue.
The issue of refunds also remains unclear. For fiscal 2025, direct tariff revenue from IEEPA exceeded $90 billion, accounting for about 45% of total tariff income, a figure that could rise to $129 billion with estimated duty deposits factored in, as per Moody’s. If refunds are granted, it could enhance liquidity and support inventory restocking. However, new tariffs under different authorities could counteract these benefits.
Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles, expressed concern about the unpredictability. “It’s still unclear whether the U.S. Treasury will issue refunds for tariffs already paid,” Seroka noted. “The Port of Los Angeles and its supply chain partners are prepared to handle any fluctuations in cargo flow efficiently.”
If the IEEPA tariffs are not replaced, Moody’s suggested that ports could experience significant volume increases, potentially leading to congestion, longer dwell times, and constraints on trucks and chassis as carriers adjust schedules. A higher volume could also enhance wharfage and concession revenues, improving the financial standing of the ports.
Meanwhile, lawsuits seeking refunds are already in motion. Plaintiffs have filed combined motions in federal court to reclaim payments with interest. The Penn-Wharton Budget Model estimates that more than $175 billion in federal revenue was generated from the now-overturned tariffs.