New academic research indicates that emissions from rebuilding Gaza could rival several weeks of global shipping emissions, raising concerns about accountability for carbon output.
A recent study reveals that the concrete and steel required to reconstruct Gaza, Lebanon, and surrounding areas could produce more carbon dioxide (CO₂) than all global shipping combined over a three-week period. Meanwhile, the governments responsible for the destruction face no financial penalties for their emissions, unlike the ships transporting materials for reconstruction, which will incur fees and regulations regarding their emissions.
The ongoing conflict in Gaza, the extensive destruction in southern Lebanon, and the ongoing turmoil in the Middle East have resulted in catastrophic consequences, one of which is a staggering carbon debt that the international community has largely ignored. Current regulations require the maritime sector to track and report CO₂ emissions, contributing to carbon markets and adhering to the International Maritime Organization's stricter rules. In contrast, the governments responsible for the airstrikes that turned city neighborhoods into rubble do not bear similar carbon-related responsibilities.
Adding to the irony, the ships delivering the materials for reconstruction will be taxed for their emissions while they perform the essential task of rebuilding.
Data from a peer-reviewed study published in the journal One Earth in early 2026 suggests that total greenhouse gas emissions linked to the Israel-Gaza conflict—covering military construction, active warfare, and post-war rebuilding—amounted to approximately 33.2 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, similar to the annual emissions of Jordan. The emissions from reconstruction alone are projected to be significantly higher.
Researchers from Lancaster University and Queen Mary University of London estimate that rebuilding the damage caused within the first four months of bombardment could generate between 46.8 million and 60 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent, based on a conservative estimate of 300 tonnes of embodied carbon per building. This rebuilding effort could produce more CO₂ than the total annual emissions of over 135 individual countries, placing it alongside nations like Sweden and Portugal.
Lebanon's situation compounds these figures. The conflict between the Israel Defense Forces and Hezbollah resulted in the destruction of about 3,600 homes in southern Lebanon, with their reconstruction expected to emit 881,433 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent. These figures underscore the significant emissions involved. When considering the broader regional damage—such as ruined ports, shattered road networks, and destroyed public infrastructure—the total carbon implications of reconstruction could become overwhelming.
To grasp the scale of emissions from reconstruction, one must understand the role of cement. Global cement production accounts for about 7 to 8% of the world’s total CO₂ emissions, yielding approximately 1.6 billion metric tonnes in 2022 alone, which is greater than the annual emissions of many individual nations. The production process involves heating limestone to nearly 1,450°C, consuming large amounts of fuel and releasing CO₂. Almost half of the emissions from cement result from this chemical process rather than fuel combustion, meaning it's not as simple as switching to cleaner energy sources.
The need for steel reinforcement, or rebar, adds to this issue. Steelmaking is one of the largest sources of industrial emissions. The quantities needed to rebuild infrastructure like apartment blocks, hospitals, and schools are substantial. Just consider the demands of reconstructing a single apartment building, which requires thousands of tonnes of concrete, plus rebar, glass, electrical systems, and all the surrounding infrastructure. When multiplied across entire districts and cities, the resulting carbon output becomes massive before any rebuilding even begins.
The World Bank has estimated that the destruction of Gaza's infrastructure alone amounts to approximately $18.5 billion, with considerable damage in Gaza City, North Gaza, and Khan Younis. This destruction produced around 26 million tonnes of debris that must be removed before any new construction can start, further contributing to carbon emissions during processing, transportation, and disposal. Thus, post-war rebuilding is not just a humanitarian and economic challenge, but also a significant carbon event.
International maritime transport plays a crucial role in the global economy, accounting for about 80 to 90% of international trade by volume, including goods like grain, fuel, medicines, and steel. However, this sector is under increasing scrutiny from climate regulators, as it is seen as relatively easy to monitor and regulate.
According to OECD data, global maritime transport emitted approximately 973 million tonnes of CO₂ in 2024, marking a 6% increase from the previous year—the largest surge recorded since the pandemic. Container shipping alone reached an all-time high, contributing 240.6 million tonnes of emissions, driven by a shift in shipping routes.
In this context, the carbon burden of rebuilding in the Middle East is striking. With an estimated 53 million tonnes of CO₂ equivalent for rebuilding Gaza alone, this effort represents around 5.4% of the global shipping industry’s annual emissions, all confined within an area of just 365 square kilometers.