A.P. Moller-Maersk has significantly raised its financial outlook for 2026, citing stronger-than-anticipated demand in the global container shipping sector and a continued increase in spot freight rates, especially for routes from the Far East.
The Danish shipping powerhouse now forecasts an underlying EBITDA of $8 billion to $10 billion for the year, compared to its earlier estimate of $4.5 billion to $7 billion. The underlying EBIT is also now expected to be between $2 billion and $4 billion, in contrast to the prior guidance of a potential loss of $1.5 billion to a profit of $1 billion.
Additionally, Maersk upgraded its free cash flow projection, now expecting at least negative $1.5 billion, improving from the previous forecast of at least negative $3 billion.
The company attributes this brighter outlook to ongoing strength in container demand and the sustained rise in spot freight rates. Maersk also increased its forecast for global container market volume growth this year to around 4%, up from the earlier expectation of 2% to 4%.
This revised outlook comes as the container shipping industry continues to benefit from a lengthy period of supply chain disruptions, which have kept freight rates high across major east-west trade routes. Although geopolitical tensions have posed significant challenges for shipping companies and cargo owners, they have also resulted in longer shipping times and disrupted networks, which have helped support freight rates.
Last week, Allianz Commercial warned that global shipping has entered a new phase of heightened geopolitical risk, suggesting that disruptions in locations like the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz are becoming permanent rather than temporary issues. The insurer indicated that shipping companies should brace for more volatility and a consistent shift toward more resilient—but potentially costlier—global supply chains.
Maersk is still operating under strict contingency plans in the Middle East. In its latest advisory, the company noted that it is limiting bookings to several Gulf markets, rerouting shipments through alternative hubs and land transport corridors, and implementing emergency freight surcharges to manage extra storage, charter, and rerouting costs.
Maersk is set to announce its second-quarter results on August 13.