By Elena Mazneva and Alberto Brambilla
July 31, 2026 (Bloomberg) – In July, Italy became the largest importer of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Europe. This surge came as traders took advantage of government incentives to continue buying cargoes, even as prices soared. Meanwhile, neighboring countries hesitated to make expensive purchases, resulting in lower storage levels.
These different strategies represent opposite views on how Europe will handle its gas supply issues before winter. If disruptions in the Middle East continue and prices rise, Italy’s strategy of stockpiling gas might pay off. In contrast, countries with low inventories could experience tighter supplies and higher costs during winter. However, if gas supplies improve and prices drop, Italy may find itself with expensive gas, which could burden consumers.
This year, European gas prices have roughly doubled due to ongoing conflicts and supply issues in the Middle East, affecting LNG purchases across the continent. Italy stands out as a notable exception, surpassing other countries in LNG imports for the first time, based on ship-tracking data from Bloomberg since 2017.
Italy’s power sector is the most dependent on gas in Europe and has seen a spike in energy demand during recent heat waves. Traders in Italy have utilized incentives to replenish storage facilities, putting the country ahead of Germany and France, which are lagging in their efforts. Italy has strict regulations regarding storage refilling, which includes specific targets and penalties for non-compliance.
As this situation unfolds, there may be increasing pressure on other European governments to support LNG purchases, especially if shipments from the Persian Gulf remain disrupted. Major buyers in Asia are also pulling shipments away from Europe, which could lead to a bidding war if supply issues persist in the coming months.
“It’s likely that gas prices will remain pressured in the coming months,” said Agostino Scornajenchi, CEO of the Italian gas network operator Snam SpA, in a recent interview. He also mentioned that Germany and other European nations might need to speed up their storage injections soon. Snam is on track to meet its target of 90% storage refilling.
European gas futures have increased by over 30% this month, influenced by recent US strikes on Iran and ongoing global market uncertainties.
Currently, winter gas contracts are trading slightly lower than summer ones, making it less appealing for most traders to stockpile. However, many experts have raised concerns about potential winter risks, with Goldman Sachs predicting that prices could soar to €100 per megawatt-hour in December — a 75% increase from current levels if the supply remains tight.
At this moment, Italy’s gas storage facilities are 75% full, which is below the five-year seasonal average but still the highest among major European markets. Germany has only 47% of its capacity utilized, marking the lowest level for this time of year since records began in 2009. France's gas inventories stand at 56%, having faced some restrictions at LNG terminals during the summer.