By Weilun Soon and Julian Lee

Feb 25, 2026 (Bloomberg) – Iran has been loading oil onto tankers quickly in recent days, which might indicate the country is preparing for a possible U.S. attack.

Exports from Kharg Island between February 15 and 20 reached nearly 20.1 million barrels, according to data from Kpler. This is close to three times the amount loaded during the same period in January, averaging more than 3 million barrels a day, which is significantly higher than Iran's normal daily production rate.

This surge in activity comes as the U.S. is building up its military presence in the Middle East, the largest since the second Gulf War in 2003. Last year, as the U.S. threatened air strikes, Iran hurried to export as much oil as it could from its ports, with a similar increase noted in 2024 during a time of heightened tensions.

Oil production and exports are crucial for Iran's economy. The current rush to load oil onto tankers allows Tehran to maximize its production before any possible disruptions. Most of these barrels, exported from Kharg Island, will need to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, generally utilizing tankers that try to remain hidden. Satellite data shows the significant activity at the island.

Read More: Why US-Iran Tensions Put Focus on Strait of Hormuz

It's uncertain what will happen to the loaded ships if a U.S. attack occurs, but according to Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, they may spread out widely. Madani noted that Iran has been loading “as much oil as possible” recently and expects tankers to “definitely disperse away from the island” if air strikes happen again.

Madani estimates that Iranian exports will average between 1.5 million and 1.6 million barrels a day this month, a number boosted by the increased shipments since February 15.

TankerTrackers.com counts exports only after the tankers have completely left Iranian waters and are on their way to the global market, while Kpler counts them as soon as they depart from Iranian ports.

The rising activity is also visible in satellite images analyzed by Bloomberg. Between February 15 and 20, the count of tankers in the waters southeast of Kharg Island more than doubled from eight to eighteen. A partial observation on February 22 showed nine tankers still present.

Crude inventories on the island seem to have decreased at the same time as the tankers arrived, indicating that oil was loaded onto the ships. On February 15, four Very Large Crude Carriers and one Suezmax were docked at Kharg Island, while three VLCCs were observed on February 20.

A Bloomberg analysis indicates that at least seven tanks were full on February 15, while on February 20, six tanks appeared to be emptier. Madani confirmed this, noting that storage on the island was about 67% full over the weekend, giving Iran enough capacity to continue filling the tanks if the tankers couldn't load. The tanks had previously been as much as 88% full, holding about 30 million barrels, as of January 26.