By Weilun Soon and Julian Lee (Bloomberg) – Recently, Iran has been quickly loading oil onto tankers, which may indicate the country is getting ready in case of a potential US attack.

Data from Kpler shows that from February 15 to 20, exports from Kharg Island reached nearly 20.1 million barrels. This amount is almost three times more than what was loaded during the same dates in January, averaging over 3 million barrels per day, which is much higher than Tehran's typical daily production.

This spike in activity comes as the US builds up its military presence in the Middle East, marking the largest force there since the second Gulf War in 2003. Last year, just before US air strikes, Iran hurried to export its oil by sending large amounts onto tankers and transporting as much as possible to Kharg Island. A similar behavior was seen in early 2024 amid rising tensions.

Oil production and exports play a crucial role in Iran's economy, and the rush to load barrels onto vessels allows Tehran to maximize production before facing any disruptions. Most exported oil leaves from Kharg Island and must pass through the Strait of Hormuz, with tankers taking measures to remain hidden. Satellite data offers insights into the volume of activity happening at the island.

It is uncertain what will happen to the ships that have recently loaded oil, but experts suggest that they might spread out if the US decides to attack, according to Samir Madani, co-founder of TankerTrackers.com, an analysis group focused on satellite imagery.

Madani mentioned this week that Iran has been loading “as much oil as possible” and that tankers “will definitely disperse away from the island if there are more air strikes.” He estimates that Iranian exports will average between 1.5 million and 1.6 million barrels per day this month, influenced by increased shipments since February 15.