On Thursday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards reported that seven commercial vessels were attacked overnight in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz. This included four ships involved in oil transfers, leading President Donald Trump to accuse Tehran of making up these attacks to increase oil prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy stated that four vessels transferring oil in the northern Persian Gulf caught fire after being struck simultaneously on Wednesday. The vessels were reportedly transferring oil for an American company via routes that Iran views as illegal.
Additionally, the IRGC claimed three more vessels hit naval mines west of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving them disabled due to resulting fires, according to Reuters.
So far, none of these incidents have been verified independently. Iran did not specify which ships were involved, their owners, or the American company mentioned. There were also no immediate reports of casualties or potential oil spills.
UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), responsible for monitoring attacks on commercial shipping in the area, has not issued any new reports confirming these claims.
In response, President Trump accused Iran on Thursday of fabricating attacks to manipulate oil prices before the elections on November 3. He posted on Truth Social, “Iran is doing everything they can to drive up the price of Oil prior to the U.S. Midterm Election. They are even making up fake hits, mines, and everything else, because more Oil is coming through the Hormuz Strait now than it did even prior to the beginning of the Conflict.”
Trump's accusations came after weeks of escalating Iranian claims that ships using routes not approved by Tehran had been attacked by mines or other weaponry.
However, the lack of reports from UKMTO doesn’t necessarily mean that the attacks didn’t happen. In its October 16 weekly assessment, UKMTO admitted it was having difficulty determining the actual number of attacks since most targeted vessels were not directly reporting incidents to them.
UKMTO noted that it was aware of other attacks through different sources but could not issue alerts without enough verification. This reporting gap is increasingly critical as both the U.S. and Iran provide differing accounts of what is occurring in the waterway.
Focus on Ship-to-Ship Transfers
The key point in Iran’s latest announcement is its claim of targeting four vessels actively involved in oil transfers. If true, these attacks could represent the first direct targeting of ongoing ship-to-ship oil transfer operations during the current conflict.
Ship-to-ship transfers have become vital for Gulf producers to maintain most of their oil exports despite multiple attacks in the Strait of Hormuz.
With U.S. military support, tankers make short trips through the strait, often turning off their AIS transponders, before transferring their cargoes to other vessels waiting in the Gulf of Oman. These receiving tankers then transport the oil to international markets.
This system has allowed producers to move significant quantities of crude oil without using routes controlled by Iran, albeit at a much higher cost.
The International Energy Agency reported on Wednesday that tanker freight costs from the Middle East Gulf to Asia have risen above $37 per barrel, over five times the prewar levels. For a fully loaded 2-million-barrel VLCC, this results in freight costs exceeding $74 million alone.
The location of Iran’s recent supposed attacks, in the northern Persian Gulf, differs from the Gulf of Oman transfer operations associated with the U.S.-backed shuttle system. There is currently no independent evidence linking the four vessels to that network.
Nevertheless, a confirmed attack on vessels during cargo transfers could significantly elevate the threat to regional oil shipping.
Unverified Mine Claims
Iran’s current claims also follow several announcements about tankers reportedly hitting naval mines while trying to dock in the Strait of Hormuz without Iranian permission.
These claims have been consistently challenged by maritime security officials.
In its October 18 advisory, the Joint Maritime Information Center (JMIC) stated that there was “no substantiation to these claims” regarding Iranian statements about two supertankers striking mines the day before.
U.S. Central Command has also dismissed previous Iranian reports of mine strikes as false, accusing the IRGC of using misinformation to intimidate commercial shipping.
However, JMIC continues to warn of a serious threat of renewed mining in and around the strait’s traffic separation scheme, maintaining the threat level for the Strait of Hormuz at SEVERE and acknowledging the likelihood of more deliberate attacks.
Debate Over Oil Flows
Trump’s claim that more oil is flowing through Hormuz than before the conflict arises amidst conflicting reports regarding the recovery of Gulf exports.
Middle East oil shipments have recently approached or even exceeded prewar levels, aided by an expanded network of pipelines, short-haul tanker trips, and offshore transfers.
However, this increase in total exports doesn’t necessarily imply that more oil is actually passing through the strait itself.
According to The Wall Street Journal, flows through Hormuz, including offshore transfers, remained at about 82% of prewar levels, even as overall regional exports improved.
UKMTO’s latest weekly overview also noted only 254 vessel transits during the week ending October 14, roughly 70% lower than pre-conflict levels. These numbers include U.S.-reported facilitated transits that UKMTO cannot verify independently.
While these statistics compare different aspects—ship movements, oil flows through Hormuz, and total regional exports—they highlight the difficulty in assessing how much shipping has really recovered.
At the same time, the security situation is worsening.
UKMTO recorded 12 attacks during the reporting period ending October 16, with 10 of them in the Strait of Hormuz. One vessel sank, two were disabled or left without command, and the outcomes for three others were uncertain.
The situation has escalated, including the sinking of the Singapore-flagged containership GFS Pride after an attack on October 13 and assaults on tankers operating in the Persian Gulf.
The recent announcement from Iran adds another seven possible incidents to an already unclear situation.
Currently, neither Tehran's assertion that seven vessels were attacked nor Trump’s claim that these incidents were fabricated has been verified independently. What remains evident is that merchant ships continue to face significant threats, even as oil producers find increasingly expensive ways to keep their shipments moving.