By Brendan Murray (Bloomberg) — The global trading system, which is wrapping up one of its most significant years in a century, is heading into another year filled with challenges to stability and growth.
World merchandise trade performed relatively well in 2025, despite US President Donald Trump starting to build a tariff wall around the largest economy in the world. Data shared by shipping industry expert John McCown shows that global container volumes increased by 2.1% in October compared to the previous year.
However, underlying trends show a different picture: the US experienced an 8% decrease in incoming volumes, while imports in Africa, the Middle East, Latin America, and India showed strong growth.
“Global container supply chains have started to adapt and change their trading patterns,” McCown mentioned in a research note on Monday. Following a 15.2% rise in US container imports in 2024, he stated that “saying that the total for 2025 will be completely different is an understatement.”
Trump's trade threats were a major reason for this shift in shipping strategies, McCown noted. He suggested that if 2025 was defined by tariffs, then 2026 would focus on dealing with the consequences of those tariffs.
In recent weeks, experts have predicted more trade instability in the upcoming year, focusing on four main issues:
The US, Canada, and Mexico are set to review the North American free trade agreement that began in 2020. This negotiation will enter “new territory,” as it allows for updates every six years, according to US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer’s comments to lawmakers this month.
Greer mentioned that more than 1,500 responses were received during the public comment period leading up to the review.
“Many stakeholders expressed support for the USMCA, and some called for an extension of the agreement,” Greer noted. “However, almost all stakeholders also requested improvements to the agreement.”
Any proposed “improvement” for one of the three countries could negatively affect another, setting the stage for tough negotiations among key US trading partners, whose industries are struggling due to American import taxes. Relations are already strained with Canada after Trump ended trade talks in October over anti-tariff ads featuring Ronald Reagan.
Global trade could face two potential shocks in the coming year that, while seeming positive, may complicate supply chains similar to the disruptions seen during the Covid pandemic, according to experts like Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime.
The first potential change is the return of the cargo fleet to the Red Sea route, rather than the longer journey around southern Africa that vessels have used for the last two years due to Houthi attacks. With the peace plan for Gaza enacted in October, the old route looks more promising, and carriers like France’s CMA CGM SA and Denmark’s A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S are already sending some ships through.
However, fully returning to the Red Sea and Suez Canal route could lead to “a lot more capacity flooding the market” and create “huge congestion issues at European ports,” Jensen commented during a Flexport webinar in November.
The second challenge may be demand-driven. If the US economy picks up quickly in 2026, as predicted by Trump administration officials due to an investment boom and lower interest rates, the resulting inventory restocking could overwhelm the shipping industry.
On the White House’s list of 2025 achievements are trade deals with several major economies, most of whom complied with Trump's requests for investment commitments and improved market access for US exports. In return for their cooperation, these nations faced lower tariff rates compared to what they would have received if they retaliated.
However, these are not traditional, binding trade agreements with enforcement mechanisms, and they lack a comprehensive agreement with China — a country with which the US has a highly unbalanced trade relationship.
This uncertainty raises concerns about the durability of these deals, especially given potential pressures from Beijing against countries engaging with Washington at China’s expense.
Recent developments have highlighted these risks. Since the White House announced its “landmark trade deal” with Indonesia in July, Indonesia has hesitated to meet US trade demands due to fears it might limit its independence, leading to an agreement being signed in late January. China has expressed discontent with Malaysia and Cambodia over their trade deals with the US, cautioning against measures that would undermine its interests.
The UK has also encountered new challenges. Last week, Greer pointed out the difficulties in negotiations with the European Union and India, asserting that contentious talks regarding their trade deals would continue into the new year. His office recently threatened retaliation against the EU for perceived excessive regulations on American tech companies.
One major unknown looming over trade in 2026 is a pending US Supreme Court decision regarding the legality of Trump’s reciprocal tariffs — the broad duties imposed on most key trading partners.
If Trump loses the case, a significant question will be whether the government must refund tariffs paid by American importers. This process is uncertain and may not occur in an organized manner.
Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, mentioned on CBS’s Face the Nation that even if the court doesn’t rule in favor of the administration, a widespread refund is “pretty unlikely” due to the administrative complexities.
Betting markets have estimated a 75% chance of Trump losing the case, which would mean the administration needs to use other powers to enforce tariffs.
When asked earlier this month about whether 2026 will be calmer regarding tariffs than this year, Greer refrained from giving a prediction. “That’s a question for President Trump,” he responded.