Global trade is expected to exceed $35 trillion for the first time in 2025, marking a 7% increase from 2024. This growth comes even as geopolitical tensions and rising costs begin to slow the momentum as we head into the new year, according to the final Global Trade Update for 2025 from UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD).
The maritime sector has played a crucial role in this growth, with seaborne trade accounting for about $1.5 trillion of the total $2.2 trillion increase. Trade in services added roughly $750 billion, growing by nearly 9%. However, UNCTAD predicts that growth will slow in the fourth quarter to only 0.5% for goods and 2% for services, signaling challenges ahead.
East Asia has emerged as the strongest region, with exports increasing by 9% over the last four quarters and intra-regional trade rising by 10%. Africa also showed strong import growth of 10% during the same period, with exports up by 6%. These trends highlight that South-South trade among developing countries is outpacing the global average, growing by 8% and showcasing increasing resilience in emerging economies.
In contrast, North America and Europe experienced slower growth. North American exports increased by just 2% over the past four quarters, despite a 3% drop in the third quarter. European exports rose by 6% for the year but slowed to 2% in the most recent quarter.
Manufacturing has been the main driver of global trade growth, expanding by 10% in the past year. Electronics led this growth at 14%, primarily due to demand related to AI. Agricultural trade also performed well, rising by 8% in the third quarter, with significant increases in cereals, fruits, vegetables, and oilseeds.
On the other hand, the automotive sector faced challenges as trade decreased by 4% over the past year. A notable exception was hybrid vehicles, which saw a 22% increase. In contrast, trade in traditional combustion-engine vehicles fell by 13%, and electric vehicle trade dropped by 5%. In the commodities sector, iron and steel trade grew dramatically by 40% since the third quarter of 2024, although overall natural-resource trade remained weak due to lower fuel prices.
Ongoing trade imbalances continue to challenge the maritime industry. China's goods surplus decreased in the third quarter but was still about $30 billion higher than the same period in 2024. Meanwhile, the United States improved its trade deficit compared to earlier in 2025.
UNCTAD notes that geopolitical fragmentation is changing shipping patterns. Both friend-shoring and near-shoring trends strengthened in the third quarter, reversing previous declines and trending toward 2021 levels. Trade among major economies is becoming more concentrated, meaning that a greater share of global cargo is now handled by a smaller group of key players.
Looking ahead to 2026, UNCTAD warns that the momentum in global trade is likely to weaken. Slower growth, rising debt pressures, higher trade costs, and ongoing uncertainty are expected to impact maritime trade flows. Although developing economies have shown resilience, many emerging markets are still grappling with debt issues.
The shift from price-driven growth to volume-driven growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 suggests that demand remains strong even as commodity price fluctuations decrease. For shipping operators and port facilities, this change indicates that cargo volumes will stay robust despite pressures on profit margins from declining rates.