An important change is happening in the effort to reduce carbon emissions from global shipping, and it's taking place not in Asia's large shipyards or the oil-rich Middle East, but in four European countries that are quickly building the necessary infrastructure for future maritime energy.
According to a recent update from Transport & Environment, Spain, Denmark, Norway, and France are leading the way in developing production facilities for green hydrogen and synthetic fuels that deep-sea vessels will need to achieve climate targets set for 2030 and 2050.
The research highlights 80 confirmed or planned projects for green hydrogen, e-methanol, e-ammonia, and e-methane across Europe, with the potential to produce up to 3.6 million tonnes of oil equivalent in e-fuels by 2032, assuming all projects become operational. While this amount is still considered modest compared to current marine fuel demand, the concentration of production in a few countries is noteworthy, potentially changing the geography of maritime energy in the next decade.
Denmark leads with 14 projects that could generate about 3.6 million tonnes of oil equivalent each year, focusing on green hydrogen and its derivatives. Spain follows as the second-largest producer with eight projects that make up about nine percent of Europe's total, closely linked to the nation's hydrogen valleys and major ports like Algeciras and Bilbao.
Norway and France have smaller overall production capacities, but a larger portion of their planned output targets the shipping industry. France aims to supply 100 percent of its national volumes for shipping, while Spain plans 63 percent, Norway 53 percent, and Denmark 42 percent.
When we look specifically at how much is aimed at shipping, Norway stands out, with nearly a quarter of its future output designated for maritime use, primarily in the form of e-ammonia. Spain and France could contribute about 1.1 million tonnes of oil equivalent per year to maritime fuel if all relevant projects go ahead. Norway's target is around 0.13 million tonnes for the sector, and Denmark's Kassø facility adds another 0.02 million tonnes of e-methanol, some of which is already sold as fuel for ships.
Denmark has achieved a significant milestone with the Kassø e-methanol plant, developed by European Energy and Mitsui and opened in May 2025. This facility is recognized as the world’s first large-scale commercial e-methanol plant, capable of producing around 42,000 tonnes of e-methanol annually from renewable electricity and biogenic CO2, equating to roughly 20,000 tonnes of oil equivalent. Transport & Environment identifies Kassø as the largest European e-fuel project focused on maritime use, with part of its output supplied directly to A.P. Moller-Maersk under long-term contracts for its dual-fuel containerships. In an industry that has long debated alternative fuels but has seen little infrastructure, Kassø serves as proof of concept.
In addition to this pioneering facility, larger national initiatives are progressing toward final investment decisions. Denmark’s plans include large-scale power-to-x projects like HØST PtX Esbjerg, which aims to produce about 100,000 to 140,000 tonnes of green hydrogen annually from offshore wind and other renewables, amounting to over 600,000 tonnes of green ammonia. Spain is also strategically linking e-fuel production to infrastructure upgrades at ports and regional industrial policy, while Norway’s focus on e-ammonia leverages its extensive experience in maritime operations. France's smaller but focused projects highlight a deliberate policy choice to integrate port decarbonization and French-flag shipping into the country's broader hydrogen strategy.
Despite this apparent momentum, Transport & Environment stresses that the overall state of e-fuel development for shipping is still fragile. Less than five percent of the identified capacity is tied to projects where shipping is the main user, and only a few of these have reached final investment decisions or begun operations. Many projects are still at the planning or early development stage, making them vulnerable to market changes, policy uncertainties, and competing demands from other sectors for green hydrogen and renewable energy.
The policy environment in Europe is crucial. Under the EU's Fit for 55 package, the FuelEU Maritime regulation requires ships at EU ports to gradually reduce the greenhouse gas intensity of their energy mix, aiming for an 80 percent reduction from a fossil fuel baseline by 2050. In November 2025, the European Commission's Sustainable Transport Investment Plan confirmed that at least two billion euros in Invest-EU financing would support sustainable alternative fuels, including green hydrogen-based fuels for aviation and maritime sectors. While these moves have led to an increase in project announcements, many developers still face uncertainties regarding long-term contracts specific to shipping, which is a significant barrier to construction.
The stakes for the climate are high. International shipping accounts for around three percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and in 2023, the International Maritime Organization adopted a revised strategy calling for net-zero emissions from international shipping by or around 2050. For deep-sea trades that cannot electrify due to energy density and range limitations, e-methanol and e-ammonia produced from green hydrogen are seen as some of the few scalable options capable of delivering very low emissions. However, these fuels are significantly more costly than traditional heavy fuel oil and involve considerable conversion losses. Without strong regulations, carbon pricing, and targeted subsidies, they remain economically unappealing for most operators.
The emergence of Spain, Denmark, Norway, and France as leaders presents both opportunities and challenges. On one hand, it creates a hub of industrial capabilities, port infrastructure, and technical expertise that could support a global green fuels supply chain for shipping. On the other hand, Transport & Environment's findings highlight the conditional nature of this lead: with only one operational shipping-dedicated e-fuel plant, a small number of projects nearing completion, and many still in planning, a robust regulatory framework is needed to signal strong demand and drive the majority of these projects to fruition.
For shipowners and fuel suppliers navigating the energy transition, the message is clear: the supply side of green marine fuels is beginning to take shape, but its development will depend on proper policy and market incentives. For policymakers, the observatory serves as both a progress report and a cautionary note against complacency. Without clearer demand signals in European and international regulations, many of the projects that currently position Spain, Denmark, Norway, and France ahead may remain stuck in feasibility. The groundwork for the infrastructure that could shape maritime energy for years to come is being laid in these four countries; whether it results in tangible solutions in time to achieve net-zero shipping will depend on future decisions that reflect Europe's commitment to drive decarbonization at sea.