El Niño is getting stronger in the tropical Pacific, and U.S. weather experts now believe there is over a 90% chance it will become a very strong event this fall and winter.
The latest update from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center indicates that sea surface temperatures are significantly above normal in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. The atmosphere conditions also align with El Niño.
In recent months, warming has intensified. The temperature anomaly in the key Niño 3.4 region is currently 1.8 degrees Celsius above the average. In the far eastern area, temperatures are even 3.5 degrees above normal.
NOAA forecasts that this phenomenon will keep gaining strength into fall and winter. Their August outlook suggests a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño from September to November and into January.
There is also a 69% chance that El Niño will reach levels between October and December that surpass previous occurrences recorded by NOAA since 1950.
This event is expected to last until the Northern Hemisphere spring of 2027 before it starts to weaken.
For the shipping industry, a major concern is the Panama Canal, where rainfall has not met expectations, prompting officials to take measures to save water.
Panama Canal Administrator Ricaurte Vásquez mentioned that they anticipate the developing El Niño will last approximately eight months.
“What we see ahead is a very low level of precipitation,” Vásquez stated. “We need to consider how long this event will persist. We expect it to last around eight months,” he added.
The timing is tough because the canal’s watershed is already quite dry.
“The soil is drier now, leading to less water retention in the surrounding areas and watershed, which complicates the situation,” Vásquez explained.
The Panama Canal Authority has started to tighten operations. Starting September 3, the Neopanamax capacity will drop to nine slots daily, and Panamax capacity will initially be restricted to 25 slots, then reduced to 23 slots on September 15.
This situation brings back memories of the 2023-24 El Niño when a historic drought forced the canal to significantly limit traffic. Canal transits decreased by 29% during fiscal 2024, with LNG transits down by 66%. At the drought's peak, daily traffic dropped to just 22 vessels, causing a backlog of 154 ships.
Currently, the canal is facing El Niño while managing unusually high demand.
Disruptions in the Middle East have led to increased tanker traffic through Panama, while the demand for LNG and LPG has also risen. Competition for last-minute transit slots has surged, with a recent auction hitting a record high of $5.3 million.
The canal has been urging customers to reserve their slots in advance while attempting to maximize the cargo from each transit. Vásquez stated that officials are encouraging shipping companies to consolidate their cargo onto larger vessels whenever possible.
“Every drop of water counts,” Vásquez said. “We are ensuring we maintain a level of reliability for the next six to eight months, which is critical for us.”
With El Niño continuing to strengthen and the Panama Canal already reducing capacity, the upcoming months will be crucial in determining whether the canal can avoid the severe restrictions and vessel backlogs experienced during the last major drought.