Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway for the global economy, remains significantly lower than normal due to ongoing restrictions on vessel movements.
On Tuesday, only 11 commercial ships were reported passing through the strait, with an average of 16 observed over the weekend, according to ship-tracking data from Bloomberg. Some vessels may turn off their tracking devices to avoid detection in high-risk areas, with reports from the Wall Street Journal suggesting that more than 20 ships could have passed through on Tuesday.
Restoring regular traffic is crucial for the global economy, as reduced shipping has resulted in a shortfall of over 400 million barrels of oil, contributing to a 31% rise in oil prices since the onset of the conflict, with European natural gas prices climbing similarly.
It remains uncertain if there has been a change in Iranian oil shipments due to the US blockade, as tankers linked to Iran typically operate with their signals turned off. The US stated on Tuesday that none of the ships had successfully crossed the blockade.
Regardless of the actual number of vessels making the crossing—some may reactivate their transponders only after passing Hormuz—current movements are a fraction of the daily average of 135 ships from last year.
Following an attack from the US and Israel on February 28, Iran effectively closed the waterway to other nations' shipping, making it the only notable oil exporter in the region. Initially, the US refrained from blocking Iranian shipments to control rising oil prices, even easing sanctions.
However, after ceasefire negotiations collapsed on Sunday, the US altered its strategy, implementing a blockade on almost all Iranian maritime activities starting Monday evening.
Both Iran and the US have claimed to have breached each other's blockades.
Tehran asserted that an Iranian supertanker managed to bypass the US blockade. Although they did not specify which ship, it might have been the Alicia, an empty US-sanctioned vessel that entered the strait around 4:10 AM local time.
Shortly after the Alicia, another supertanker, the Greek-owned Agios Fanourios I, successfully crossed through Hormuz into the Gulf on its second attempt, heading to the Iraqi port of Basra based on the signals it was transmitting.
This marks only the second non-Iranian Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) to be seen entering the strait since the war began.
Crucially for the oil market, there have been no indications of Iranian tankers successfully transporting cargo past the US blockade, with several turning back.
Additionally, Iran seems to have loaded another oil tanker at its Jask export terminal, located just inside the eastern part of Hormuz, just on the outskirts of the Persian Gulf. Satellite images indicated that a VLCC was moored at the terminal on both Friday and Sunday, but an image from Tuesday shows the docking area empty. The ship had its tracking device turned off while moored, and it remains unclear where it is currently located.
Beyond oil tankers, at least two container ships linked to Iran, the Golbon and the Kashan, have successfully left the Persian Gulf, following the Iranian coastline toward its border with Pakistan. Both ships crossed the strait’s apex on Tuesday after previously being anchored near the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas.
All vessels entering and leaving the Persian Gulf in the past day were confined to a narrow northern lane close to the Iranian islands of Larak and Qeshm.
In addition to the two container ships, the outbound traffic included three bulk carriers, one small oil products carrier, one bitumen tanker, and three small coastal cargo ships observed crossing on Tuesday and early Wednesday.
Ships deactivating their tracking devices in high-risk areas may lead to initially lower transit counts, with numbers expected to be adjusted upward as more data becomes available. Tuesday is the most recent day for which a complete 24-hour data set is accessible.
Along with the two VLCCs, two small oil products tankers, one LPG tanker, one bulk carrier, and two sanctioned container ships were noted entering the Persian Gulf during the same time frame.