The global containership industry is preparing for possible major changes, as the orderbook has reached 11.61 million TEU, which is about 34.8% of the current fleet. This level is much higher than what is needed for normal fleet replacements, according to maritime research company Linerlytica.
This increase follows an extraordinary rise in orders in 2025, when shipping companies ordered 633 ships totaling 5.08 million TEU. This breaks previous records from 2021 and 2024. Recent orders from COSCO and Hapag-Lloyd contributed to pushing this year's total beyond the 4.77 million TEU ordered in 2024 and 4.74 million TEU in 2021.
Linerlytica warns that this rapid growth “raises concerns about over-supply in the next four years.” The main worry is whether demand for cargo will keep up with the large number of new ships that are set to be delivered by 2029.
Chinese shipyards remain the leaders in the newbuilding market, despite ongoing concerns from the U.S. about Chinese shipbuilding capacity. Chinese yards secured 497 units, or 79% of all orders, making up 3.66 million TEU, which is 72% of the total capacity. South Korean shipbuilders have improved their position, increasing their share from 11% in 2024 to 27% in 2025, adding 1.35 million TEU.
The current market is still unstable. After carriers were unable to achieve rate increases earlier in December, they tried again in mid-December but had limited success. Although the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index jumped by 7.8% one Friday, carriers quickly began to retract some of those increases.
Looking ahead to 2026, the Premier Alliance carriers have announced plans to add two more Transpacific PSW services and an enhanced Asia-North Europe route starting in April. The alliance will continue using the Cape of Good Hope for routing instead of returning to the Suez Canal due to ongoing security issues.
The combination of record orders, uncertain demand growth, and increasing competition among carriers could lead to market disruptions as new ships come into service in the coming years. The key question for shipping leaders and analysts is whether the industry can manage this new capacity without leading to a long period of low freight rates.