Global container shipping rates have decreased for the fifth consecutive week, dropping by 1% to $1,933 for a 40-foot container. This decline comes as the expected pre-Lunar New Year surge in cargo has once again not materialized.
The latest figures from the Drewry World Container Index highlight the weak nature of this peak season. Typically a strong period for shipping, rates have been falling steadily since early January, prompting carriers to cut back on capacity significantly.
Transpacific routes are facing the most challenges. Spot rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles fell by 1% to $2,214 per FEU, and rates from Shanghai to New York also decreased by 1% to $2,800. In response, carriers are planning 57 blank sailings on transpacific routes in the next two weeks, which is much higher than the usual seasonal numbers, according to Drewry’s Container Capacity Insight.
Drewry commented, “This downward trend indicates a significant change in the market, with the expected pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush not occurring in 2026.”
Similar trends are being observed on Asia–Europe routes. Rates for shipping from Shanghai to Rotterdam dropped by 2% to $2,127 per FEU, and rates from Shanghai to Genoa fell by 3% to $2,965. Carriers are also announcing another 24 blank sailings on Asia–Europe and Mediterranean routes in the next two weeks, largely due to factory shutdowns and ongoing weak demand impacting shipping volumes.
This decline contrasts sharply with typical seasonal trends, where rates usually increase ahead of the Lunar New Year as exporters rush to send out cargo before factory closures. This year, however, rates peaked earlier and have been trending downward since then.
Drewry noted that the sharp drop in container spot rates points to a weak market, which is unexpected given the usual rise in demand ahead of the CNY. They cautioned that rates might fall even more if the typical seasonal patterns continue.
The downward trend has been building over recent weeks. Just last week, the index fell by 7% to $1,959 per FEU, marking the fourth consecutive decline. By that time, carriers had already begun to reduce capacity, canceling a total of 18, 27, and 28 transpacific sailings over a three-week period.
The capacity cutbacks come against a complex backdrop. Currently, about 2 million TEU—around 8% of the global container fleet—is being redirected around the Cape of Good Hope. However, the gradual resumption of some services through the Suez Canal is starting to introduce supply back into the market, complicating the rate outlook.
Philip Damas, a Drewry analyst, stated that the timing and extent of any wider return to the Suez Canal will be critical factors influencing the market this year. Carriers are considering various factors, including security risks, insurance costs, competitor actions, and port congestion before making decisions.
The cautious reopening began when Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced that their ME11 service would start Red Sea transits in mid-February, following test voyages and a decrease in attacks after the ceasefire in October 2025. However, risk tolerance among carriers varies. Shortly afterward, CMA CGM decided to reroute three Asia–Europe services back around the Cape due to the “complex and uncertain international situation.”
Drewry mentioned that these conflicting decisions indicate that any increase in capacity will happen gradually rather than suddenly, which could help prevent an immediate collapse in spot rates.
Looking ahead, analysts warn that global freight rates might drop by as much as 25% in 2026, as new vessel deliveries coincide with weaker demand, even if conditions in the Red Sea remain relatively stable.
The Suez Canal Authority expects normal traffic levels to return by the second half of 2026. Before security issues arose in late 2023, the canal facilitated about 12% of global maritime trade and around 80 container ships each week.
With carriers planning 63 blank sailings for February—up from 27 in January—the market seems to be preparing for more pressure on rates as factory shutdowns and decreased cargo demand continue.
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