By Rachel Yeo
August 27, 2026 (Bloomberg) – Chinese container shipping companies are about to see a big boost in earnings, following trends in regional and global markets. This surge is attributed to a rush in shipments to navigate changing tariffs and ongoing shipping disruptions, which have pushed freight rates to their highest levels in two years.
During the second quarter, global container rates more than doubled, reaching a peak of $4,639 per 40-foot container in the week ending July 9, as reported by the Drewry World Container Index. This is the highest rate since 2024, when container ships were dealing with attacks from Houthi militants in the Red Sea.
Kenneth Loh, an analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, noted that “geopolitical tensions and an earlier-than-expected peak in cargo volume, driven by demand to avoid US tariff changes in late July,” contributed to this strong performance.
Concerns over rising US tariffs led to a rush to export goods before the July 24 expiration of a 10% global tariff under section 122. Although the subsequent Section 301 measures raised tariffs only slightly, they also reduced uncertainty in tariff policies.
Earnings for major Chinese shipping operators, such as Cosco Shipping Holdings and Orient Overseas International, are projected to follow the positive trend seen by Taiwanese companies like Evergreen Marine and Yang Ming Marine Transport, both of which reported their strongest earnings growth in over a year.
Loh mentioned that this growth is mainly due to high container shipping spot rates, which are a result of ongoing shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and significant diversions from the Red Sea since late 2023.
In South Korea, HMM Co. has reversed four consecutive quarters of declining revenue in its container segment, while Nippon Yusen KK, Japan's largest shipping firm, has experienced the fastest growth in operating income since 2022.
European companies like A.P. Moller-Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd AG have also raised their earnings forecasts this quarter.
Transpacific shipping rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles and New York have reached their highest points since the start of the year and are expected to stay strong.
Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, commented, “We might see stronger and more consistent demand on transpacific routes since there hasn’t been a significant change in tariffs.”
Analysts from Citi, led by Kaseedit Choonnawat, believe that continued inventory restocking in Western economies will keep demand high in the second half of the year, allowing shipping rates to remain above profitable levels, even as more global ship capacity becomes available through 2028.
Red Sea Resumptions
External disruptions are also keeping rates high. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has raised fuel costs, making detours around Africa much more expensive. Additionally, typhoons in Asia and low water levels in Northern Europe are adding to congestion and reducing vessel availability.
Carriers returning to the Red Sea can cut fuel costs and free up capacity in congested ports. Some companies, including Cosco, are resuming services through the Red Sea to operate more efficiently and maintain profitability in the face of these challenges.
Levine remarked, “The situation has changed a bit. Carriers are eager to go back to the Red Sea because it keeps their vessels moving instead of stuck at one location and unable to meet customer demands.”
Analysts at HSBC, led by Bruce Chu and Parash Jain, cautioned that any relief in disruptions and congestion in Europe and the Middle East could pose risks for Cosco.
Loh also pointed out that the end of the one-year US-China trade truce could create new challenges if it isn't extended beyond October. “This could increase pressure on the bottom lines of Chinese shipping companies as uncertainty about tariffs and postponed US port levies mounts.”