Los Angeles and Long Beach are wrapping up 2025 with near-record cargo volumes, following a surge in imports driven by tariffs, even as the effects of frontloading diminish and a weaker outlook for 2026 emerges.
Two of the busiest container ports in the U.S. are finishing 2025 close to record cargo levels, despite ongoing uncertainty around tariffs that have impacted global supply chains and the U.S. import market.
The Port of Long Beach is expected to surpass its all-time cargo record of 9.6 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) set in 2024, having processed 9,047,477 TEUs in the first eleven months of 2025—a 2.9% increase from the same time last year. Meanwhile, the Port of Los Angeles has handled 9,447,731 TEUs through November, which is 1% higher than 2024, and is on track to exceed 10 million TEUs for the year, marking it as the port's third-best performance ever.
Even with these strong yearly results, both ports experienced declines in November when compared to the elevated levels of 2024. Long Beach reported 817,561 TEUs for November, a decrease of 7.5% year-over-year, while Los Angeles processed 782,249 TEUs, down 12%.
“Despite all the trade uncertainty, we expect to finish 2025 with over 10 million TEUs, placing this year among our top three ever,” said Gene Seroka, Executive Director of the Port of Los Angeles. “All that cargo moved smoothly without congestion and not a single ship was backed up.”
Seroka attributed the ports' reliable operations to teamwork throughout the supply chain. “Our longshore workers, truckers, terminal operators, rail partners, and all stakeholders have kept this complex system running efficiently,” he added. “That's why 200,000 importers and exporters choose Los Angeles every year and trust us in any market.”
Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, also highlighted that the facility maintained smooth operations despite significant market pressures. “Cargo moved steadily without congestion or disruptions at the Port of Long Beach, even as consumers and businesses faced an unusual amount of uncertainty from fluctuating trade policies throughout 2025,” Cordero stated.
Frontloading Strategy Leads to Cargo Slowdown
The strong performance in the first half of the year at both ports was mainly due to importers rushing to bring goods into the country ahead of tariff changes. However, this frontloading strategy has created a slowdown that analysts expect to last into 2026.
According to the National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker report, U.S. container ports handled 2.07 million TEUs in October, down 7.9% compared to last year, with November projected at 1.91 million TEUs (down 11.6%) and December forecast at 1.86 million TEUs (down 12.7%). If the December prediction holds, it would be the slowest month since June 2023.
“We are beginning to see the effects of the tariffs as cargo demand weakens going into the fourth quarter and likely into the first half of next year,” said Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates. “Shipping rates are already dropping on both coasts due to reduced need for cargo space for goods coming from Asia and Europe.”
The frontloading trend has left retailers well-prepared for the holiday season, but they will likely face lower import needs in the following months. “Retailers are well-stocked for a strong holiday season, but there remains considerable uncertainty about trade policies in 2026,” noted Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy.
Uncertain Outlook for 2026
Trade policy continues to be the key factor influencing cargo forecasts. The administration recently reduced tariffs on some food items, but the fate of other tariffs implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act is pending a Supreme Court decision.
Looking ahead to 2026, the Global Port Tracker anticipates ongoing challenges, with January likely to see 2 million TEUs (down 10.3%), February at 1.86 million TEUs (down 8.5%), March at 1.79 million TEUs (down 16.8%), and April at 1.97 million TEUs (down 10.9%).
Despite hurdles in the maritime sector, consumer demand is still strong. The NRF predicts record holiday sales surpassing $1 trillion for the first time, an increase of 3.7% to 4.2% compared to 2024. This contrast between robust retail performance and declining import volumes highlights the effectiveness of retailers' preemptive cargo strategies.
Port officials at both locations expressed cautious optimism for 2026. Cordero mentioned that Long Beach anticipates “moderate growth in cargo for the upcoming year,” while Seroka stressed that operational quality will be maintained regardless of fluctuations in volume.
As the maritime industry moves into 2026, officials and stakeholders agree that tariff policy will be the major factor affecting cargo flows, as shipping markets continue to adjust to what analysts call a “new normal” of decreased demand across both U.S. coasts.