According to the latest Goods Trade Barometer from the World Trade Organization (WTO), global seaborne trade is showing signs of slowing down. After a strong start in the first half of 2025, driven by increased imports, the pace is expected to moderate as we approach the end of the year.
In September, the WTO's composite leading indicator dropped to 101.8, down from 102.2 in June. This decline points to a slowdown in global merchandise trade. Although the barometer remains above the baseline value of 100, which indicates growth, the drop suggests that the rapid growth seen earlier in the year is starting to decrease.
The WTO’s report noted, “Goods trade growth seems to have slowed in the second half of 2025 after a surge earlier in the year caused by increased imports due to expected tariff hikes and rising demand for AI-related products.”
The shipping industry metrics also show this cooling trend. Both air freight and container shipping indices have fallen over the last three months, with air freight at 102.7 and container shipping at 101.7, indicating a slowdown in global goods transportation.
The only component index that fell below the baseline was agricultural raw materials, sitting at 98.0. This index has been in contraction since the start of the year. In contrast, automotive products and electronic components remained steady at 103.0 and 102.0, respectively.
Despite the slowdown, positive indicators suggest continued growth. The new export orders index increased to 102.3 after some earlier fluctuations, showing ongoing strength in global exports.
The first half of 2025 exceeded expectations for global trade, with merchandise volumes rising by 4.9% year-on-year. However, the WTO has revised its full-year growth outlook down to 2.4% for 2025, citing that “higher tariffs and ongoing trade policy uncertainty are likely to hamper growth in the second half.”
The WTO sees potential for higher growth if demand for AI-related products remains strong, which contributed to the impressive performance in the first half of the year. The next trade forecast from the organization will be released in April 2026.
This barometer is designed to provide real-time insights into merchandise trade trends and typically predicts developments two to three months in advance. Values above 100 indicate trade volumes are above the trend, while values below the baseline suggest a decrease in trade.