LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The International Energy Agency (IEA) announced on Wednesday that global oil and gas demand might continue to rise until 2050. This is a shift from earlier predictions that anticipated a fast move towards cleaner energy, especially after recent criticism from the U.S. regarding its climate policies.

In its annual report, the IEA indicated that the world is unlikely to meet its target of limiting temperature increases to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels, which is essential to prevent major impacts of climate change.

For several years, the IEA has faced pressure from the U.S., particularly under President Trump, who urged American companies to ramp up oil and gas production. During President Biden’s term, the agency previously forecasted that global oil demand would peak in this decade and suggested a halt to investments in new oil, gas, and coal projects to achieve net-zero emissions by mid-century.

Many experts, including Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright, have criticized these peak demand projections as “nonsensical.” The IEA is funded by its member countries, with the U.S. being the largest contributor.

In its latest World Energy Outlook, the IEA estimated that oil demand could reach 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, which is about a 13% increase from 2024 levels. It also projected a 90 exajoule increase in global energy demand by 2035, representing a 15% rise from current levels.

This projection, previously used in 2019, aligns with existing government policies rather than ambitions for clean energy. IEA head Fatih Birol explained in a press conference that this reflects the different energy choices that governments are currently making.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has often disputed forecasts about peak oil demand. On their website, OPEC expressed hope that the idea of "peak oil" has been surpassed.

This year’s outlook omitted the scenario based on pledges due to a lack of new commitments from countries to provide a clear picture. In the scenario based on stated policies, which considers proposed but unadopted policies, oil demand is expected to peak around 2030. The variations in projections are mainly due to differing expectations about the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs).

The IEA emphasizes that its scenarios outline a range of possible outcomes based on various assumptions and are not definitive forecasts.

This report also highlighted a significant increase in final investment decisions for new liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects, with operations expected to start for about 300 billion cubic meters of new annual LNG export capacity by 2030—a 50% increase in supply.

Under the current policies scenario, the global LNG market is projected to grow from around 560 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035, and then to 1,020 bcm in 2050, largely driven by rising energy demand from the power sector, especially data centers and AI growth.

Global investment in data centers is expected to hit $580 billion by 2025, surpassing the estimated $540 billion spent worldwide on oil supply.

The report includes a vision for achieving net-zero emissions from global energy by 2050. Over 190 countries made pledges at the Paris climate talks in 2015 to try to limit global warming to no more than 1.5 degrees Celsius, but the report indicates that this goal will be exceeded in all scenarios.

“We need to speed up and scale up, and governments at COP30 must agree on a global plan to urgently address the gap in reaching the 1.5-degree goal,” said Kaisa Kosonen, a senior policy adviser at Greenpeace Nordic, referencing the ongoing U.N. climate talks in Brazil.

For more information, you can find details on IEA’s oil demand scenarios here.