By Chen Aizhu
SINGAPORE, Jan 14 (Reuters) – China's oil imports from Venezuela are expected to decline starting in February. This is due to a decrease in the number of tankers leaving for Caracas, which is Venezuela's main crude buyer, following the U.S. claims of control over the OPEC member, according to traders and analysts.
Since U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a blockade in December on sanctioned ships transporting Venezuelan oil, the number of tankers making the journey to China has dropped significantly. This blockade is part of a broader strategy to pressure Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which included a military operation that led to Maduro's capture.
After Maduro's capture, Trump announced that the U.S. is now in control of Venezuela and encouraged American companies to invest in the country's oil sector.
However, the U.S. has seized five vessels linked to Venezuela following the blockade, causing ship owners to turn their vessels around or to return to Venezuelan waters after loading oil to avoid potential confiscation. This has effectively managed the country's oil exports.
Recently, around a dozen loaded tankers left Venezuela with their signal transponders turned off during a U.S. operation on January 3, but most have returned after Caracas' interim government struck a deal to supply 50 million barrels of oil to Washington.
Three of these tankers are still heading towards Asia and are expected to arrive in China by late February, as reported by a shipping source.
These tankers are carrying about 3 million barrels of fuel oil and 2 million barrels of Merey heavy crude, according to the unnamed source due to the sensitive nature of the situation.
Since the blockade began in December, approximately 2.9 million barrels of crude have been shipped from Venezuela to Asia on three vessels carrying Merey and other types of Venezuelan crude, according to Richard Ro, a crude analyst for the Americas at Kpler. The company also estimates that another 2.6 million barrels of fuel oil have managed to pass through the blockade.
PDVSA has not responded to requests for comments about the tankers' departures or returns.
The 5 million barrels of fuel oil and crude set to arrive in China is equivalent to about 166,000 barrels per day. This is a significant decrease from the average of 642,000 bpd that Venezuela supplied to China in 2025, which accounted for 75% of its total average exports of 847,000 bpd last year, according to internal PDVSA documents.
CHINA STOCKPILES
However, China stocked up on Venezuelan oil late last year, with millions of barrels still in transit. This has provided Chinese refiners with some leeway to delay finding alternative sources of supply.
Kpler estimates that around 43 million barrels of Venezuelan oil are on their way to the East, while tracker Vortexa suggests the number is 52 million barrels.
In November, China received a record 660,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude, according to Vortexa data. This figure dropped to about 450,000 bpd in December when storage tanks became full.
Trading companies Trafigura and Vitol have started marketing Venezuelan oil under U.S. regulations, targeting Indian refiners and China's major state firm CNPC for March deliveries.
TEAPOTS
The expected decrease in supply is likely to impact independent Chinese refiners, often referred to as "teapots," who have been the largest purchasers of Venezuelan crude. However, Venezuelan oil still only makes up about 4% of China's total seaborne crude imports.
Some of the teapot buyers have orders scheduled for cargoes arriving in March and April, which left Venezuela prior to the U.S. blockade. They are currently facing "great uncertainty" regarding the availability of future supplies, according to a senior Chinese trader involved in teapot sales.
In the second quarter, Chinese teapots may need to look for alternative supplies, such as Canada's Cold Lake and Access Western Blend, as a possible redirection of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. might lead to more Canadian oil being sent to Asia, traders say.
The teapots usually process Venezuelan oil, mainly Merey and fuel oil, into materials for road construction. For several years, traders have been labeling Venezuelan oil as Malaysian or Brazilian to bypass U.S. sanctions.