Container spot freight rates on major east-west trades saw a slight increase this week due to the general rate increases (GRIs) on November 1st. However, these gains varied, and some rates were quickly reduced by carriers offering discounts.
The Shanghai-Los Angeles route recorded a 9% increase in Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) compared to last week, ending at $2,647 per 40ft container. Meanwhile, the Shanghai-New York leg saw an 8% rise, finishing at $3,857 per 40ft.
Despite these increases, many carriers began discounting rates from China almost immediately after the GRIs were announced.
US forwarder Freight Right noted that for shipments to the US west coast, “actual market-clearing ‘specials’ are generally available in the $1,900–$2,100 per 40ft range,” with discounts of around $400–$500 week-over-week. These discounts are linked to specific sailings planned for November 7-12 and reflect the carriers' need to fill partially empty ships.
A similar trend was observed on the Asia-US east coast trade, where special offers are available around $2,800 per 40ft, showing a slight week-over-week decrease from earlier peaks.
Drewry pointed out that to maintain higher rates, carriers need to implement more GRIs and reduce capacity. In response, MSC announced the cancellation of two transpacific voyages: the MSC Brasilia VII, scheduled to depart next week, and the Zim Mount Blanc, set for week 48.
Additionally, a recent meeting between Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping is not expected to trigger any significant surge in demand, according to Freightos head analyst Judah Levine.
He explained, “Two-thirds of all exports from China to the US are still subject to tariffs of up to 25%, imposed during the first Trump administration, which adds to the existing 20% baseline tariff on all Chinese exports. This means tariffs on China are considerably higher than those on other countries.
As a result, importers are likely to continue diversifying their sources. There has also been significant front-loading, contributing to an early peak season on transpacific routes. Moreover, November and December are generally slower months for this market,” he added.
However, Robert Khachatryan, founder and CEO of Freight Right, expressed optimism among Asian carriers, who believe that current low demand will improve around the New Year.
“Asian carriers anticipate a demand spike, likely in early January as we approach Chinese New Year. However, the situation is expected to worsen before then,” he cautioned.
Indicators for possible declines next week are visible in the latest Shanghai Containerised Freight Index (SCFI), which shows a 16% week-over-week fall in rates to the US west coast, down to $2,212 per 40ft, and a 17% decrease to the US east coast, where rates fell to $2,848 per 40ft.
Meanwhile, the Asia-Europe trade has recorded a fourth consecutive week of increases, highlighting some success with the GRIs implemented on November 1st.
The Shanghai-Rotterdam route rose by 9% from the previous week, reaching $1,962 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa route increased by 8%, ending at $2,111 per 40ft.
As the contracting season for Asia-Europe begins, carriers are attempting to raise spot rates, announcing further hikes in freight all kinds (FAK) rates of about 50%.
MSC has introduced a new FAK level of $3,000 per 40ft from Asia to North Europe, $3,650 per 40ft to West Mediterranean ports, and $3,500 to East Mediterranean, all effective from November 15th.
Similarly, Hapag-Lloyd will implement new FAK levels of $3,100 to North Europe and $3,500 to $3,600 for the West and East Mediterranean on the same date.
Xeneta head analyst Peter Sand mentioned that the success of these increases will depend on carriers carefully managing their capacity, although the long-term situation remains very challenging.
“Capacity offered is down across all major routes compared to last month, even with some increases in recent trades,” he stated. “Carriers are managing capacity closely at this crucial time of year, ahead of the 2026 contract tenders, contributing to an increase in average spot rates since November 1st, following a rise in mid-October.
“Similar rate increases were seen on November 1 in both 2024 and 2023, indicating that carriers are effectively responding to seasonal demands. However, despite their capacity management efforts, subdued demand means rates will likely drop again,” he explained.