By Brendan Murray and Alex Longley
Jan 16, 2026 (Bloomberg) – After over two years of avoiding the Red Sea, top container shipping companies are slowly returning to this crucial route for east-west trade, as they feel it is now safer.
A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S announced on Thursday that it is rerouting one of its regular services through the Suez Canal. This decision suggests that the second-largest shipping line is becoming more confident that the risk of attacks related to regional conflicts has decreased. Previously, ships had to travel around the southern tip of Africa due to attacks from Yemen's Houthis on vessels protesting Israel's war in Gaza.
“This could indicate a broader normalization after the Chinese New Year,” said Lars Jensen, CEO of Vespucci Maritime, referring to the holiday that occurs in the latter half of February this year. “Other carriers will take notice and likely start planning their own returns.”
Shorter shipping routes usually help global trade flow more smoothly and increase maritime transportation capacity, as ships spend less time delivering their goods. However, this could put downward pressure on spot container rates and the revenues of shipping companies. In 2023, more than $2 trillion in trade passed through this area, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd.
According to an advisory, a Maersk service that connects India and the UAE with the US East and Gulf Coasts will undergo changes. The first vessel left Jebel Ali port in Dubai on Thursday, while the first ship on the eastward route through Suez departed Savannah, Georgia, earlier this week.
Maersk considers this a “significant milestone,” but they also have a backup plan if the security situation worsens, which might mean returning to the longer route around the Cape of Good Hope for safety.
This move by the Copenhagen-based company follows two trial runs and similar actions by competitors. Five ships operated by MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co. SA and CMA CGM SA from Marseille have recently passed through the Suez Canal, according to Drewry Shipping Consultants.
MSC, which is based in Geneva, is the largest carrier, while CMA CGM is the third-largest. Spokespeople for both companies did not immediately comment. Together, these three carriers account for around 48% of global shipping capacity as noted by Alphaliner.
“Maersk has typically been more cautious than other major carriers about returning to the Red Sea, so this represents a turning point,” said Peter Sand, chief analyst at Xeneta, a digital freight platform based in Oslo. “Maersk’s announcement about returning to the Suez Canal is particularly noteworthy, even though it involves smaller ships and they are not part of an alliance.”
During the week ending Sunday, 26 container ships crossed the Egyptian shipping channel, the highest number in five weeks, up from just 10 the previous week. However, this figure is still far below the weekly average of around 80 vessels before the rerouting began in late 2023, as per a report from Drewry.
Experts warn that it may take several months for the global container fleet to fully adjust back to normal schedules, and this will depend on keeping the security situation stable.
“This is a step in the right direction, but a complete return might not happen immediately,” said Jorgen Lian, an equity research analyst at DNB Carnegie. “It all comes down to how the situation develops, as it remains dependent on avoiding new conflicts.”
Sand estimates that it could take three to five months to fully reinstate Suez schedules.
Shipping companies have indicated they will transition back gradually to avoid port congestion caused by new schedules and to prevent excess capacity from driving down spot rates to unprofitable levels. They also aim to maintain reliability without making frequent changes in response to the security situation.
On top of supply concerns, demand is also expected to weaken for carriers, as global trade in goods is forecasted to slow down this year after a strong performance in 2025. Oxford Economics predicts that world goods trade will grow by just 1.7% this year, a considerable drop from 4.9% in 2025.
According to transportation analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, freight rates “were already under pressure due to challenging supply-demand dynamics, and they may decrease even further.”
The diversions from the Red Sea, which accounted for about 7% of global container capacity, have helped maintain shipping rates and supported carrier earnings over the past two years.