(Bloomberg) —
Shares of A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S dropped due to investor disappointment with a less significant improvement in the company's full-year profit forecast than expected.
Maersk indicated that its underlying earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization are projected to be between $9 billion and $9.5 billion in 2025, up from a previous low estimate of $8 billion. However, analysts had predicted an average of $9.11 billion.
The company also increased its outlook for the global container market, now expecting a growth of about 4% this year, compared to an earlier forecast of between 2% and 4%. Additionally, its earnings for the third quarter exceeded estimates.
Despite this positive news, shares fell as much as 7.5% in Copenhagen, marking the largest decline since April, before closing the day almost 5% lower.
“The third quarter looks like a temporary boost. It’s a strong report, but conditions for future earnings appear very challenging,” said Mikkel Emil Jensen, senior analyst at Sydbank A/S. “Investors can’t feel reassured by good quarterly numbers when the outlook seems so grim.”
The shipping industry is facing declining freight rates, as disruptions in the Red Sea—removing about 7-8% of the global fleet—cannot compensate for an oversupply of ships. Moreover, trade between China and the US is slowing down due to ongoing tariff disputes.
“With the results from the third quarter and a still weak forecast, it indicates very difficult earnings ahead for Ocean—not just in the fourth quarter, but moving forward,” Jensen added.
This situation is also dampening expectations for the company to continue share buybacks next year.
“It’s hard to envision Maersk doing share buybacks while experiencing negative earnings and cash flow pressure,” Jensen noted. “That would be counterproductive.”
Maersk is seen as an indicator of global trade, which is experiencing significant fluctuations as the US government changes its trade policies.
The disruptions in the Red Sea are expected to persist throughout the year, which has helped alleviate some of the vessel overcapacity globally, leading to higher freight rates earlier this year. However, costs for transporting goods have recently decreased, impacting shipping profits.
By the end of the quarter, the total nominal fleet was 7.6% larger than the same time in 2024, according to Maersk.
In a pre-market interview, CEO Vincent Clerc emphasized the company’s resilience.
“The main message this quarter is one of resilience—the resilience of the global economy, which continues to drive strong demand across our various businesses, and the resilience of our operations,” he stated in an interview on Bloomberg TV.
“China plays a crucial role in this. Much of it stems from China's manufacturing capacity, which focuses heavily on export-led growth to address some of its domestic demand challenges,” he added.