The shipping company A.P. Moller – Maersk, based in Copenhagen, has updated its financial outlook for 2025. Following a strong third quarter with growth in all business areas, they have raised the lower end of their earnings forecast.

Maersk now predicts an underlying EBITDA of $9.0 to $9.5 billion for the year, which is an increase from the earlier estimate of $8.0 to $9.5 billion made in August. The underlying EBIT guidance has also improved to $3.0 to $3.5 billion, up from the previous range of $2.0 to $3.5 billion. While the lower end of their forecast has been increased, the upper end remains the same.

Additionally, the company has raised its forecast for global container market volume growth to about 4%, compared to the earlier estimate of 2% to 4%.

In the third quarter, Maersk generated revenue of $14.2 billion, with an EBITDA of $2.7 billion and EBIT of $1.3 billion. Although these numbers show a decline from the outstanding results of Q3 2024, which had an EBITDA of $4.8 billion and EBIT of $3.3 billion, they still indicate solid improvement compared to the previous quarter.

CEO Vincent Clerc stated, “We have delivered a strong third quarter across our business. Our results reflect our ability to execute and improve continuously, as well as the trust that customers place in us. The new East-West network has boosted our Ocean performance, providing industry-leading reliability, increased volumes, and reduced costs.”

The Ocean segment recorded an EBIT of $567 million, a significant rise from $229 million in the previous quarter, thanks to the Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd. This partnership has led to considerable cost savings and a 7% increase in loaded volume year-over-year.

The Gemini Cooperation aims for 90% schedule reliability and focuses on vessel sharing to create what the companies call “the industry’s most reliable, airline-style scheduled network.”

In the terminals segment, EBIT reached a record $571 million, up from $461 million in the last quarter, driven by an 8.7% increase in volumes due to strong demand in the Americas, Europe, and Africa. Terminal utilization hit 89%, with some facilities close to full capacity.

The Logistics & Services segment continued to see profitability, improving margins from 4.8% to 5.5%, with EBIT rising from $175 million to $218 million. This growth was attributed to effective cost management and strong performance in the Fulfilled by Maersk segment, particularly in warehousing.

Maersk expects the disruptions in the Red Sea to continue throughout the year, requiring vessels to be rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope, which adds both time and costs to supply chains.

During the quarter, the company also returned $578 million to shareholders through share buybacks. Maersk has adjusted its capital expenditure guidance to about $10 billion for 2024-2025, slightly lower than the previous estimate of $10-11 billion.

Maersk's positive outlook stands in contrast to the more cautious forecasts from some competitors. Ocean Network Express recently projected a full-year profit of only $310 million for fiscal 2025, anticipating a $61 million loss in the latter half of the fiscal year, following first-half profits of $371 million.

Jeremy Nixon, CEO of ONE, stated, “We maintain a cautious outlook for the full year given current market dynamics,” referencing geopolitical challenges and market fluctuations influenced by tariffs.

The container shipping industry is dealing with a tough situation, characterized by oversupply from new vessel deliveries, uncertainties surrounding tariffs, and the ongoing need to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope due to Red Sea disruptions.

Despite this, Maersk seems to have confidence in its stability. “As market conditions change, we are well positioned to help our customers adapt and maintain stability in their supply chains,” said Clerc.